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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

AJS said:
I can safely say that this tornado won’t make the cut for EF5. I think contextual damage and home damage just fell short of what was fully needed. It definitely gave the rating a run for its money though. Very fortunate it avoided a direct hit on those towns.
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I’d actually say the contextual damage was enough for EF5. The damage to the concrete slab itself is very impressive too. Again, I think the only thing that keeps it from EF5 is that if we’re going by the “slab swept clean” definition, it doesn’t really apply.

Some post-debris cleanup pics got posted and everyone just started second-guessing, even though it’s the same house as below. Not a clean sweep.
 

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buckeye05 said:
I’d actually say the contextual damage was enough for EF5. The damage to the concrete slab itself is very impressive too. Again, I think the only thing that keeps it from EF5 is that if we’re going by the “slab swept clean” definition, it doesn’t really apply.

Some post-debris cleanup pics got posted and everyone just started second-guessing, even though it’s the same house as below. Not a clean sweep.
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Yeah after looking back, Contextual damage was there. Just not a clean sweep like we would see in an EF5. Regardless, this really gave the rating a run for it’s money.
 
atrainguy said:
Apparently there is a few houses struck by tornadoes two years in a row in Paragould?

www.facebook.com

WeatherMatrix

Incredibly, several homes in Paragould, Arkansas, were hit by a second tornado in less than a year. On May 27, 2024, several houses were severely damaged by an EF-2 tornado. On Saturday, another...
www.facebook.com www.facebook.com
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The on-air met on KAIT was talking about that during their live coverage. Apparently it hit his house.

Is there a preliminary rating for the Paragould tornado? I can't seem to find one, just EF2 for Pocahontas to the northwest.
 
buckeye05 said:
I’d actually say the contextual damage was enough for EF5. The damage to the concrete slab itself is very impressive too. Again, I think the only thing that keeps it from EF5 is that if we’re going by the “slab swept clean” definition, it doesn’t really apply.

Some post-debris cleanup pics got posted and everyone just started second-guessing, even though it’s the same house as below. Not a clean sweep.
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Been an excellent discussion in this thread. Like I said, this is one heck of an interesting tornado; even putting aside various controversies, it truly flirted with the bounds of categories in a way that shows our inherent difficulties in trying to clearly categorize such a capricious side of nature.
 
buckeye05 said:
I’d actually say the contextual damage was enough for EF5. The damage to the concrete slab itself is very impressive too. Again, I think the only thing that keeps it from EF5 is that if we’re going by the “slab swept clean” definition, it doesn’t really apply.

Some post-debris cleanup pics got posted and everyone just started second-guessing, even though it’s the same house as below. Not a clean sweep.
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This home before the cleanup sort of reminds me of the well built home that was obliterated during the Matador tornado, but like above, didn’t get the full “clean sweep” of debris.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
The on-air met on KAIT was talking about that during their live coverage. Apparently it hit his house.

Is there a preliminary rating for the Paragould tornado? I can't seem to find one, just EF2 for Pocahontas to the northwest.
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Found it, Wikipedia has it grouped with the March 15 tornadoes. I forget they don't go 12UTC-12UTC like SPC does.

EF2 as well, 6.18 mile path.
 
This was posted to Twitter with the caption “If this isn’t EF5 then I don’t know what is”. Yeah let’s just ignore that the entire property has essentially been bulldozed into an empty dirt lot with a slab. There’s even a freakin’ bulldozer IN the photo! Weather Twitter raises my blood pressure…
 

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buckeye05 said:
I’d actually say the contextual damage was enough for EF5. The damage to the concrete slab itself is very impressive too. Again, I think the only thing that keeps it from EF5 is that if we’re going by the “slab swept clean” definition, it doesn’t really apply.

Some post-debris cleanup pics got posted and everyone just started second-guessing, even though it’s the same house as below. Not a clean sweep.
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A tornado causing extremely impressive damage to the concrete slab but objectively not sweeping the slab clean somehow seems truly bizarre to me.

Can anyone think of any similar tornadoes in the past?
 
buckeye05 said:
This was posted to Twitter with the caption “If this isn’t EF5 then I don’t know what is”. Yeah let’s just ignore that the entire property has essentially been bulldozed into an empty dirt lot with a slab. There’s even a freakin’ bulldozer IN the photo! Weather Twitter raises my blood pressure…
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Perhaps take a twitter fast @buckeye05 after outbreaks. Lol i personally avoid usually, I just can’t…
 
buckeye05 said:
This was posted to Twitter with the caption “If this isn’t EF5 then I don’t know what is”. Yeah let’s just ignore that the entire property has essentially been bulldozed into an empty dirt lot with a slab. There’s even a freakin’ bulldozer IN the photo! Weather Twitter raises my blood pressure…
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Honestly looking at the position of that bulldozer I wouldn’t be surprised if the damaged/lifted up slab was caused by it.
 
The wide view radar image shows the kind of night it was in northeast Arkansas on Friday. Three significant tornadoes in progress at once. Upper right one that just went through Pocahontas, one between Black Rock and College City and then the EF4 as it was hitting Jacksonport/Diaz (included closeups of that as well).
 

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Here are my key takeaways from this:

Very pleased with the Diaz, AR tornado rating. Honestly wasn't expecting higher than EF4/185 when I first saw the damage (which, tbh, I would have been completely fine with too). Can't believe I'm saying this, but good job, LZK! How times have changed...

The cracked and uplifted part of the slab is undeniably impressive at first glance, but it must be considered that such was the result of a bulldozer and not necessarily the tornado - especially considering the speed at which cleanup took place on that property. Pre-cleanup, there were intact walls and other large chunks of debris left in a pile right next to the slab - imo, the debris pattern is not quite consistent with what you'd see in an EF5. Had the debris been grinded into smaller pieces and wind rowed away from the slab, I think we would have ended our EF5 drought.

On the other hand, far less pleased with the Bakersfield, MO damage survey. Not only is the wind speed estimate far too low, but yet again seeing surveyors blatantly lie about the state of a structure ("walls still standing" - similar to what MEG did during the 3/31/2023 McNairy Co. tornado survey) to get it down to the wind speed they want it to. Just ridiculous...

Not saying EF3 is a bad rating for Bakersfield though. 140MPH is again way too low, but high-end EF3 would have probably been fine. IMO it was probably a low-end EF4 at its peak (based on contextuals including vehicle mangling and tree debarking) but with maybe one exception, it doesn't seem like any of the homes were well constructed enough for a violent rating.

Speaking of the one home in question, this is the one I'm talking about. Unlike the other home, the subfloor on this one is totally gone. I can't tell if it was bolted or not though, and if it was a prefab (again, not sure) then a violent rating is out of the question.
bakersfield-damage.png
 
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