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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Afternoon AFD from FFC. TLDR: forecast holds serve, potent severe weather for Georgia, especially western regions, on tap. Strong tornadoes supported by intense shear and ample surface-based instability.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Widespread severe weather threat this evening through Sunday
morning across the area with damaging winds, large hail, and
tornadoes possible.

- Heavy rainfall likely across portions of N GA through Sunday
morning, and a Flood Watch remains in effect through early Sunday
morning. Localized flooding is possible elsewhere.

- Very gusty winds are expected prior to frontal passage. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect through late tonight for much of the
area.

A sharp upper trough will dig across the Eastern Plains and MS Valley
tonight, then begin to lift NE by Sun afternoon. At the surface, a
double-barreled frontal system will sweep across the area late
tonight and on Sunday.

Instability has already begun to increase across the area (much of it
initially elevated) with sunshine breaking through a thickening CU
field. Instability will become deeper and more surface-based this
evening and overnight. A significant pre- frontal band of severe
thunderstorms is expected to sweep across the area tonight into
Sunday morning. MUCAPE values will increase to 500-1200 J/kg as
convection moves across the area, with effective shear of 50 to as
high as 80 kts. Helicity values will increase to 400-600 m2/s2
during this time frame.

SPC has forecast a moderate risk of severe storms covers across our
W zones, with an enhanced risk across most of the remainder of the
area. A slight risk is relegated to our extreme SE zones (mostly late
tonight into early Sunday morning). Strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher,
some long track) are possible in the moderate and enhanced risk
areas. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible in severe
storms.

Residents should ensure they have multiple methods of receiving
warnings. Storms will be moving across large portions of the area
overnight tonight when most people will be asleep. Your safest
shelter during a tornado warning is a central room without windows on
the lowest level of your house. A basement room without windows is
ideal. Mobile homes are not a substantial enough structure during a
tornado, and mobile home residents are urged to have a plan for
sheltering in a more substantial structure should a warning be
issued.

Locally heavy rainfall will accompany this pre-frontal band, adding
to the forecast rainfall totals across the N zones. Storm total QPF
values with this system will range from 2 to 4 inches across portions
of the N, with amounts closer to an inch to an inch and a half
elsewhere. Locally heavier amounts are possible, particularly in
areas where heavier storms train over the same area for extended
periods of time. A Flood Watch continues for extreme N GA through
Sunday morning. Some river flooding is possible as well, and a
handful of Flood Warnings are already in effect.

Outside of thunderstorms, the gradient winds will continue to
increase prior to frontal passage. The low-level jet is forecast to
increase, making gusts over 40 mph likely by evening. Higher gusts
are possible, particularly at elevations above 2000 feet. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for all but the SE corner of the area. It
remains possible the a High Wind Warning may be required for a
portion of the area. /SEC

&&
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Muwx said:
Not really. What you’re describing is basically what a PDS warning is for. Tornado emergency’s are typically reserved for when strong go violent tornadoes are going through heavily populated areas. If you issue them for every tornado you might as well just get rid of the tornado warning itself. Tornado emergencies get people’s attention because they aren’t used often. Wouldn’t be the case if we used them constantly.
Click to expand...
I disagree. If the point is to inform the public, emergency will mean more to affected people than an acronym they don't understand the meaning of.
 
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