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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

ColdFront said:
Just summarizing some of Trey’s points so far:

Current convective mess currently west of the risk area is a bit of a fly in the ointment as it’s going to hamper the warm sector in NW MS/SW TN.

The trough isn’t actually as negatively tilted as previous Runs, and the main jet has been slowed down a little. Geometry has slightly changed and trended slightly less favorable to a true upper echelon event. Would cause probably not as much discrete activity in the OWS, but with the broad warm sector there’s enough to see robust supercells. Northern warm sector will probably get pinched off as the event goes forward.

I really think this is a pretty good step back from what we were looking at yesterday and 2 days ago.
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Thanks. Interesting… but he still sees violent tornadoes possible
 
Brandon said:
Still drizzling in Madison, AL and kind of cool...I was out and about taking care of a few errands during the lull and I think it's making a lot of folks complacent.
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That's what I was saying earlier. Last night was more of a Midwest event than a Southeast event and I think there are a lot of people who are disregarding today's threat because last night underperformed IN AL. I know of a few different events that were waiting until after the first round passed to decide whether or not to cancel and based on last night are going forward.
 
buckeye05 said:
Of course we’ll wait and see, but it’s perfectly fair and relevant to discuss these last minute developments imo.
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100%. He also states the convection looks to congeal quicker into a line than previous runs where it had it staying discrete well past dark.

I really think we’ve taken a step back from “historic” to pretty bad. And I may be eating crow later for this statement.
 
New AFD released by NWS in Jackson:

"Local radars were lit up with severe convection over our western
and delta regional zones. A severe weather outbreak is still
expected today. The 12Z Sat JAN sounding a decent cap at 850mb
that has helped suppress convection over central and east
Mississippi so far but, that cap is expected to erode. Recent
light shower development along and south of Interstate 20 was
already showing signs that the cap was eroding. In addition strong
gusty winds were being observed. These wind gusts will become
stronger this afternoon prompting the issuance of a Wind Advisory
for gusts of 45-50mph even away from storms. Otherwise, the
current Tornado Watch for the western half of the area expires at
1PM. A second Tornado Watch covering the eastern half of MS will
likely be issued prior to 1PM. Tornadoes, some strong to violent
and long-tracked remain the main threat with the storms this
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will also be
possible."
 
AJS said:
To quote what @JPWX said, regardless of the ingredients in place and the parameters fueling these storms, they have the potential to cause destruction and loss of life and it’s shaping up to be a long day ahead of us.
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I agree 100%. But as @buckeye05 said, it’s absolutely fair and relevant to discuss these updates. Especially with all the “4/27” comparisons going off all over social media.
 
ColdFront said:
I agree 100%. But as @buckeye05 said, it’s absolutely fair and relevant to discuss these updates. Especially with all the “4/27” comparisons going off all over social media.
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I 100% agree as well don’t worry. I’m just hoping no one downplays the threat. Also a bit worried since I have some friends in the main target area so if my replies seem a bit off at times, I apologize.
 
Suffice it to say that the 13Z HRRR still looks incredibly dangerous. It also wants to essentially break things back up once it hits the AL/GA line. STP values of 3-6 in western Georgia. Very concerning look for all of us, and would be particularly dangerous to Georgians roughly west of I-75.
1742050540182.png1742050543503.png
 
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