Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[lake.effect]

I am talking about the fact that this storm has no chance of producing a tornado in the immediate future.

It clearly does...are we looking at the same radar?

 

[MattPetrulli]

I am talking about the fact that this storm has no chance of producing a tornado in the immediate future.

Well if there's a convergence signature and a couplet up in tilts, that's a pretty good sign for future tor gen

 

[Muwx]

IS there any hail happening?

I am located just west of the highest velocity signature and received no hail and maybe 45 MPH winds.

 

[Tennie]

It clearly does...are we looking at the same radar?

I think that @Muwx is referring to the fact that, among other things, the dewpoint spread at/near the surface is currently rather higher than would usually be associated with tornadic storms.

 

[MMWX]

Storm over Shell Knob, MO certainly looks interesting. Could see a warning for it.

 

[Muwx]

lol, ok champ!

Just reporting what I am seeing outside my window

 

[Evan]

Storm near Shell Knob, MO looks somewhat promising. Other than that...not seeing a lot right now that merits a lot of attention.

 

[AJS]

Storm over Shell Knob, MO certainly looks interesting. Could see a warning for it.

Definitely bears watching. Hook beginning to form and the velocity signature actually looks pretty impressive.

 

[tornado examiner]

How long til these storms move into the tornadic environment?

 

[lake.effect]

Just reporting what I am seeing outside my window

You're like 10 miles away from the main rotation...you're not going to be able to tell squat by looking out your window in this environment.

 

[Clancy]

Not surprised by the (relative) lack of tornadic activity over MO. Ingredients not all there yet over most of the state, but expect that to change rapidly in the coming hours. Arkansas is pretty ripe, on the other hand.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Is this TDS I’m seeing?
View attachment 35620View attachment 35621
Theres nothing interesting on velocity btw

It looked like it to me. Looked at it with GRLevel and saw rotation with SRV at the same time. Didn’t last long however.

 

[andyhb]

Dewpoints are still not quite where they need to be in MO, the richer moisture remains along/south of the stateline in AR.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Think we have about 2-3 hours before things really start kicking (at least in the deep south AR/MS/ west TN). If the 21z HRRR is anywhere near accurate, then it'll be a long night

 

[Chris3024]

Keep an eye on the cells west of Waldron, Arkansas and NW of Jasper, Arkansas

 

[SmokeEater]

Severe warning with tor possible tag coming for that TW'd cell.

 

[Muwx]

Severe warning with tor possible tag coming for that TW'd cell.

How it should have been all along. Idk why people got so bent out of shape by my call out when i literally had eyes on the storm

 

[TornadoFan]

Jackson Mississippi just put out a special sounding. There's still a cap in place and the moisture hasn't gotten there yet. This is according to Brad Arnold.

 

[cg9450]

How it should have been all along. Idk why people got so bent out of shape by my call out when i literally had eyes on the storm

It's gonna be tense fam, and people are more than likely going to be overly cautious because of the environment and the oncoming disaster on the horizon. I would bet it wasn't personal, don't get discouraged, and stay safe.

 

[Evan]

I could see things starting to ramp up over the next 45 minutes to an hour. Pretty good spacing on the storms near Springfield, Missouri. Several of them seem to be improving their presentation.