Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Richardjacks]

So that only goes through about 10 am central tomorrow?

Correct

 

[UncleJuJu98]

So that only goes through about 10 am central tomorrow?

Yes, that's 18 hours out. The HRRR does long range (48 hours) at 00z, 06z, 12z ,18z. 00z comes out in about 2-3 hours.

 

[ColdFront]

It’s already been mentioned and We are in nowcast mode, but that 21Z HRRR run for tonight is mind boggling.

Just discrete supercells up and down across multiple states.

 

[The Colonel]

21z HRRR run (uploaded 14z by accident just a second ago) View attachment 35610

Hi-

I’ve posted off an and and lurked forever so don’t take this as a dumb question

But to me this looks very messy in the high risk area with most of the convection prog’d in N AL/MS & TN

Assuming the cells south of meridian MS would be what’s to cause the problems across C AL?

I just keep expecting to see a cleaner look on the sim radar but maybe that’s just overestimating on my end?

 

[UK_EF4]

Bit of an aside from tonight's threat, but looking forward to tomorrow morning, the HRRR has a shortwave ridge over the northern half of the warm sector. Will induce slight subsidence which is likely to at least somewhat limit convective coverage in the warm sector. As has been the common theme with this sequence... not good.

 

[Kds86z]

Bit of an aside from tonight's threat, but looking forward to tomorrow morning, the HRRR has a shortwave ridge over the northern half of the warm sector. Will induce slight subsidence which is likely to at least somewhat limit convective coverage in the warm sector. As has been the common theme with this sequence... not good.

View attachment 35613

Ah yes , Trey mentioned this ridge also in his discussion.

 

[TornadoFan]

New storm going up near Huntsville, Arkansas.

 

[Jetstream]

Welp, the storm shelter has been cleaned out and prepped. Prayers lifted up for all, lets just hope for the best.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Hi-

I’ve posted off an and and lurked forever so don’t take this as a dumb question

But to me this looks very messy in the high risk area with most of the convection prog’d in N AL/MS & TN

Assuming the cells south of meridian MS would be what’s to cause the problems across C AL?

I just keep expecting to see a cleaner look on the sim radar but maybe that’s just overestimating on my end?

This run is for tonight

 

[TornadoFan]

Dewpoint up to 66 in Conway, Ark.

 

[Tennie]

Even if tomorrow was somehow never in play, the combination of events that are either currently ongoing or are expected to happen later tonight could easily make tonight a memorable one by themselves. We've got (potentially) tornadic storms, dust storms, wildfires, etc.!

Just some food for thought...

 

[Keldeo]

Storm trying to go up around Mena Arkansas

 

[lake.effect]

Tornado likely imminent near Nixa, MO - shear is stronger on each scan.

 

[Muwx]

Tornado likely imminent near Nixa, MO - shear is stronger on each scan.

Its certainly organizing, but nothing to suggest its imminent yet.

 

[Tennie]

Tornado likely imminent near Nixa, MO - shear is stronger on each scan.

The rather large dewpoint spread in that area would likely put a crimp on the tornado threat from that cell, at least for some time anyway (knock on wood!).

 

[AJS]

Definitely not a tornado imminent, but it is definitely organizing and developing strength.

 

[treypops]

Tornado likely imminent near Nixa, MO - shear is stronger on each scan.

I don't see it. It's not juicy enough up there yet.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Possible TDS around Ute, IA

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I've been watching the storms in Lousianna, usually you see a uptick in lighting with the strengthening mesocyclone/updraft nothing yet, few rumbles here and there but not drastic increase. it's got a anvil on both storms though.

 

[AJS]

Latest velocity scan on the Missouri storm.
Definitely seems to be strengthening.