Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[AJS]

Are we talking about the texas/oklahoma fire and dust storm in this thread?

No. this is for the current tornado outbreak taking place across the Midwestern states right now.

 

[Brice W]

Are we talking about the texas/oklahoma fire and dust storm in this thread?

I wouldn’t. Given the significance of the severe weather today and tmr.

 

[Kds86z]

Are we talking about the texas/oklahoma fire and dust storm in this thread?

Nope

 

[W4AQX]

Is it just me, or is an eml on soundings is a bit stronger than what was modeled?

So far, almost everything I've seen is stronger than what was modeled. It's a little eerie, to be honest.

 

[Brice W]

Thread is made for the wildfires. Hopefully this will be the last mentioning about them.
https://talkweather.com/threads/plains-wildfires-3-14-3-15-2025.2369/

 

[AJS]

Looks like the main tornado threat will be focused throughout the evening and overnight hours.

 

[N0mz]

Looks like the main tornado threat will be focused throughout the evening and overnight hours.

main tornado threat so far :|

 

[Richardjacks]

I've seen a bit of discussion regarding the models probably underdoing the EML given the expected source, sounds like that's exactly what's happening

Right, but i would that expect that to show up tomorrow, not tonight.

 

[andyhb]

Right, but i would that expect that to show up tomorrow, not tonight.

Ehhh, this is a very powerful trough with a strong mid level dry intrusion. This type of EML was always in the cards, it's why the biggest storms likely won't come until a couple of hours from now.

 

[lake.effect]

Shear increasing rapidly on cell just northwest of Springfield, MO

 

[UncleJuJu98]

21z HRRR run (uploaded 14z by accident just a second ago)

 

[Kds86z]

21z HRRR run (uploaded 14z by accident just a second ago) View attachment 35610

Those supercells…

 

[treypops]

21z HRRR run (uploaded 14z by accident just a second ago) View attachment 35610

That's a long night.

 

[UK_EF4]

Continue to feel extremely worried about the threat of multiple long track intense tornadoes through the evening from N AR into E MO and C/S IL.

In just 2 hours the LZK shows very notable cooling and moistening of the lower/mid levels as the cap begins to erode - and this is displaced to the South of the strongest height falls. Meanwhile surface imagery shows the 60F boundary rapidly moving north, edging toward the MO border.



Would be very much surprised not to see discrete or semi-discrete supercells evolve over the next 2-3 hours and become tornadic as the deep moisture begins coinciding with the strengthening LLJ. Between 01-04z we will likely see multiple tornadic supercells tracking through an STP 4-6 environment. Not good.

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

These cells in east-central Louisiana could lead to big problems in the future. Definitely something to watch.

 

[Richardjacks]

I am not really sure I65 gets anything appreciable in the morning...unless we have a hard right mover ...

 

[Justin Hindman]

Wondering if these storms in Mississippi that come through tonight will lay down boundaries and they fire on those tomorrow around 1 pm

 

[Richardjacks]

Wondering if these storms in Mississippi that come through tonight will lay down boundaries and they fire on those tomorrow around 1 pm

Come through where? I am not real confident they make it to I65...south of Cullman

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

21z HRRR run (uploaded 14z by accident just a second ago) View attachment 35610

So that only goes through about 10 am central tomorrow?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brad arnold is in Vicksburg, there going to purse the storm near Jena , Lousianna.

Here's a link to his livestream