Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[AJS]

Definitely has an ominous structure to it now.
Curious to see what develops from this.

 

[treypops]

This Des Moines storm is interesting.

 

[AJS]

Definitely showing signs of strengthening. Hook beginning to form it looks like.

 

[MikeP]

Although tornadoes and high winds will be the main story of the event, there is also a flooding threat as well. Flood Watches have been issued for counties in the Tennessee River basin area.

I'm also not too stoked about hail up to 2 inches in diameter or greater either.....

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

New tornado watch probabilities

 

[jules]

Just realized tomorrow is the Ides of March, yikes.

 

[treypops]

View attachment 35600
Definitely showing signs of strengthening. Hook beginning to form it looks like.

Nice little inflow notch on that storm now.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

View attachment 35600
Definitely showing signs of strengthening. Hook beginning to form it looks like.

It was 79 degrees today and dew points never got above 43 degrees. Tornado threat is extremely low. Now wind on the other hand!

 

[MoonBaby]

This is random but to those in the high risk tomorrow, try to record local news prior to the event. One thing I love to do after the bad weather is done is to go back and watch the news leading up to it. I am probably not the only one? Maybe?
Also yes I’m in the high risk but haven’t sorted out a way to record besides screen recording off my phone.

 

[cg9450]

It just keeps getting worse and worse.

 

[Equus]

Wind profiles aren't even maximized across the southern risk areas in LA/MS, we're still hours out from the best conditions; seeing stuff already getting going is a bit unsettling

 

[andyhb]

Dangerous 21z observed sounding from Little Rock already with plenty of shear for tornadoes, a weakening cap, and sufficient deep moisture.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

View attachment 35603

It just keeps getting worse and worse.

Yet another run that takes a supercell right through St. Louis. That will be absolutely horrific.

 

[Richardjacks]

Is it just me, or is an eml on soundings is a bit stronger than what was modeled?

 

[Baxter]

This post is principally aimed at Georgian board members: 18Z HRRR is nasty, and in particular, a seriously concerning solution for Atlanta and West Georgia. Deep, moisture-fueled convection in the presence of alarmingly high instability and the already well-discussed extreme helicity will support a threat for multiple highly-dangerous, intense supercells across much of Western Georgia, including Atlanta. With STP values of 3-5 expected across much of the western 1/3rd of the state, I just want to re-emphasize for us Georgia folks to think about the kinds of measures you might need to take as we face a threat for strong tornadoes of a magnitude and areal expanse that we're not particularly used to.
View attachment 35543View attachment 35544View attachment 35545View attachment 35546

 

[treypops]

here comes the moisture

 

[Equus]

View attachment 35604

Dangerous 21z observed sounding from Little Rock already with plenty of shear for tornadoes, a weakening cap, and sufficient deep moisture.

Quite the profile even before the LLJ really starts maximizing, absolutely classic looking for a really bad time about to start

 

[N0mz]

Are we talking about the texas/oklahoma fire and dust storm in this thread?

 

[Equus]

Is it just me, or is an eml on soundings is a bit stronger than what was modeled?

I've seen a bit of discussion regarding the models probably underdoing the EML given the expected source, sounds like that's exactly what's happening