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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

MichelleH said:
That happens more than most people realize. So many areas that were hit on 4/3/74 were hit again on 4/27/11. Every county has its "tornado paths" that have been hit over and over through the years.
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Bamamuscle said:
I just explained this to my students. I teach in Limestone County, AL and Tanner is the only city in country that has been hit by 3 EF-5 tornadoes. None of my students knew that factoid. Nature of patterns in science.
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eosaurora13 said:
See: Anderson Hills in Harvest, AL
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I don't really buy the whole notion that certain communities are favored to get hit over other communities in a close area. People really struggle with understanding sample size... and with tornadoes which are very small relative to the size of the state, it takes a massive number over 1000+ years to really get any idea on how susceptible specific communities or neighborhoods are.

Imagine a roulette wheel where each spin is a violent tornado and each number is a town. We have spun the wheel about maybe 100 times over the last several decades , and yes, a few numbers have come up 2 or 3 times... while plenty of other numbers have not come up at all. But what happens when we spin it 500 more times? or 5000 more times? Will those same numbers that have been hit multiple times recently keep coming up or will things even out? Anyone who has played roulette knows that a number can be hit 3 times in a 5 spin sample and then not be hit again for another 150 spins.


Now is northwestern Alabama more susceptible tornadoes than central Georgia? Sure... but I think people should be very careful in thinking that Pleasant Grove or Tuscaloosa or Piedmont or Moore OK are somehow dramatically different than Hoover or Anniston or West Blocton just because in our very small sample size of tornadoes, those communities have or haven't been as devastated as often.
 
This event will be its own thing. Every event has a chance to rewrite history, not necessarily repeat it. While I do believe we will be referencing this permanently after its over, it’s important that we not merely compare to the past but understand that we are living in a tiny fraction of this planets existence. History always has the chance to be changed. Goodluck and godspeed to everyone within the risk areas. I plan on sitting back and letting the professionals voice their opinions and analysis, since that is there inherent strength and they deserve to have it recognized.
 
Comparison of the CAMs on the 12Z suite. All models really hone in on this area in NE MS and NW AL for helicity tracks. Will note that on 3/25/21, we saw some similar helicity data, but actual values ended up being to the south and southeast of the most intense streaks.
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Of the CIPS Top 15 Analogs for tomorrow as of 0z, here's the date, the number of tornadoes, and the highest rated tornado:

1. March 5, 2004 - 29 tornadoes, 2 F2's
2. January 27, 1994 - 4 tornadoes, 1 F2
3. April 8, 1998 - 62 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 F5 on April 8
4. March 30, 2022 - 90 tornadoes (multiple days), 3 EF3's
5. February 27, 2000 - 0 tornadoes (???)
6. April 27, 2011 - 367 tornadoes (multiple days), 4 EF5's
7. February 23, 2019 - 7 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 EF3
8. April 4, 1981 - 5 tornadoes, 1 F4
9. January 30, 2013 - 66 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 EF3
10. February 2, 2016 - 14 tornadoes (multiple days), 3 EF2's
11. April 7, 2010 - 8 tornadoes (multiple days), 2 EF 1's
12. March 31, 2016 - 29 tornadoes (multiple days), 3 EF2's
13. February 15, 1990 - 12 tornadoes, 1 F2+ * (couldn't find info on this tornado, other than it being significant)
14. April 16, 1998 - 63 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 F5
15. February 21, 1997 - 11 tornadoes, 1 F2


So collectively these 15 events represent 6 F5/EF5 tornadoes, with a median of 14 tornadoes (if we ignore the entry with 0 tornadoes, this goes up to 29 tornadoes). The median highest intensity, weighted by frequency, of these top 15 analogs is F2/EF2. But there's extremely wide variation. Among the Top half of the analogs (Top 8), 7/8 have at least 1 tornado, 5 of the 8 have F3/EF3 or higher tornadoes occurring, and 3 of the 8 have F4/EF4+ occurrences.

Just some food for thought.
 
cg9450 said:
Source?
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BMX morning AFD.
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025

BLUF: A multi-faceted, and multi-day severe weather event should get
underway early tomorrow morning. Through Sunday morning, all modes
of severe weather will be possible, including strong and long-lived
tornadoes.

Things will get under very early Saturday morning (before 7AM), as
low pressure number one moves over the Great Lakes. Given the
location of the low, the upper-level dynamics won`t be all that
impressive. Even with that being the case, these early supercells
will still be possible of producing hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. These storms will quickly get bogged down in upscale
growth, with widespread morning convection moving north across the
region. This morning convection will play a key role in the scope of
the afternoon convection, as it will ultimately dictate how large
the warm sector is. There is still a decent spread in the high-res
guidance regarding the scope of these morning thunderstorms, with
most locations remaining clear, to most locations being completely
socked in. More scattered thunderstorms will ultimately lead to
quicker recovery, allowing those afternoon storms to have a better
environment to work with.

Even if the warm sector is slightly suppressed, the afternoon Theta-
e surge from the Gulf should allow for at least moderate instability
during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. This warm sector
will perfectly align with the deep 500mb trough ejection, and potent
surface low pressure moving into the Midwest. All of these
ingredients will combine for a highly volatile environment Saturday
afternoon, capable of producing all modes of severe weather. This
includes strong tornadoes, a few of which may be long-lived.

The threat for supercell tornadoes will continue into the evening,
before the cold front begins to crash, forcing everything to go
linear. Here, the threat for tornadoes embedded in the line will
remain, with the threat for damaging winds remaining as well. This
line will continue to trek east, before exiting the region sometime
before sunrise on Sunday.

I would like to end my discussion by saying this. We`ve already been
fielding calls asking about the possibility of getting upgraded to a
High Risk on Saturday. While the jury is still out on that, the
severe weather threat in general is all but certain. We`re
absolutely going to see some kind of impactful weather, it`s just a
matter of how widespread it will be. So, regardless of if the map
ends up red or pink, now is the time to prepare for a significant
severe weather event that is expected to linger into Sunday
morning.
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National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
wx_guy said:
Of the CIPS Top 15 Analogs for tomorrow as of 0z, here's the date, the number of tornadoes, and the highest rated tornado:

1. March 5, 2004 - 29 tornadoes, 2 F2's
2. January 27, 1994 - 4 tornadoes, 1 F2
3. April 8, 1998 - 62 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 F5 on April 8
4. March 30, 2022 - 90 tornadoes (multiple days), 3 EF3's
5. February 27, 2000 - 0 tornadoes (???)
6. April 27, 2011 - 367 tornadoes (multiple days), 4 EF5's
7. February 23, 2019 - 7 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 EF3
8. April 4, 1981 - 5 tornadoes, 1 F4
9. January 30, 2013 - 66 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 EF3
10. February 2, 2016 - 14 tornadoes (multiple days), 3 EF2's
11. April 7, 2010 - 8 tornadoes (multiple days), 2 EF 1's
12. March 31, 2016 - 29 tornadoes (multiple days), 3 EF2's
13. February 15, 1990 - 12 tornadoes, 1 F2+ * (couldn't find info on this tornado, other than it being significant)
14. April 16, 1998 - 63 tornadoes (multiple days), 1 F5
15. February 21, 1997 - 11 tornadoes, 1 F2


So collectively these 15 events represent 6 F5/EF5 tornadoes, with a median of 14 tornadoes (if we ignore the entry with 0 tornadoes, this goes up to 29 tornadoes). The median highest intensity, weighted by frequency, of these top 15 analogs is F2/EF2. But there's extremely wide variation. Among the Top half of the analogs (Top 8), 7/8 have at least 1 tornado, 5 of the 8 have F3/EF3 or higher tornadoes occurring, and 3 of the 8 have F4/EF4+ occurrences.

Just some food for thought.
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I would like you all to notice too that only 3 in that list occurred in March.
 
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