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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

wx_guy said:
The CIPS analogs has this piece of guidance I found interesting:

In parts of MS/AL, there is a 20% chance of FIVE or more long-tracked tornadoes within ~70 miles of a given point. That's an astonishing statistic to ever calculate. That speaks to not just the numbers we can expect, but the density -- this could be very tightly packed in MS and AL with long-track tornadoes.

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I may be splitting hairs, but I don't think that's exactly what this map depicts . It is saying that of the 15 most analogous events to this upcoming one, 3 of the 15 produced 5+ long-track tornadoes within ~68 miles of those areas.
 
MichelleH said:
That happens more than most people realize. So many areas that were hit on 4/3/74 were hit again on 4/27/11. Every county has its "tornado paths" that have been hit over and over through the years.
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I just explained this to my students. I teach in Limestone County, AL and Tanner is the only city in country that has been hit by 3 EF-5 tornadoes. None of my students knew that factoid. Nature of patterns in science.
 
I probably won't have too much more time to check in here as we will be busy communicating and getting ready for this.... But I wanted to make absolute sure that I had time to check in before I'm off doing my think tonight and tomorrow. There is zero, absolutely zero doubt in my mind, of what is going to unfold over the next 36 hours. If you live in central and north Alabama, central and east/north Mississippi, southern and middle Tennessee, western Georgia, and adjacent areas... if you've never listened to your local meteorologists before, the next 36 hours is the time for you to do so for the first time. Stop be a hard-headed knuckle head because this is 2025 and everybody knows it all. Pay attention. Take this as seriously. Regardless of what other days there are in history that are bigger than this in final tally, the next 36 hours, and especially tomorrow, are as real as it ever gets.

If you're in northwest Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, or far northeast Mississippi, you'll have me and the rest of my team to guide you through this at Tennessee Valley Weather. Our website is in my signature here. You can then access all of our platforms from there or finding us on Facebook.
 
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A Guy said:
Going to chime in with a bit of a disagreement. If a seperate thread is created for the mets then it should be for substantive updates only. Andy, Fred et al. have engaged in plenty of interesting discussion that possibly mightn't have happened if such a decision had been made earlier, unless they pasted the same posts into here to discuss them. This is after all a place to discuss the weather.

Repetition and multiple posts on the same thing is an unfortunate fact of internet forums - as anyone who's followed the Significant Tornado Events thread, and its predecessor on the old Talkweather site, for well over a decade can attest. Obviously this is an unusual and potentially historic event. and traffic has been unusual with a lot of new posters. Previous big events have tended to generate under 25 pages before the day-of. I think if anything's done it should be a (probable) one off, and should try split the conversation as little a possible.
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This is absolutely the right call - maybe not a met tag only thread, but a thread where banter and non informative posts, spamming of soundings with no additional information are not allowed. AmericanWx does this - it has to because of the size, especially for east coast snowstorms. Ultimately it's up to the mods because it would require some heavy moderation during major events such as this one. But it is so difficult to scroll through "omg this is so bad" posts and general conversation back and forth that belongs in DM.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I probably won't have too much more time to check in here as we will be busy communicating and getting ready for this.... But I wanted to make absolute sure that I had time to check in before I'm off doing my think tonight and tomorrow. There is zero, absolutely zero doubt in my mind, of what is going to unfold over the next 36 hours. If you live in central and north Alabama, central and east/north Mississippi, southern and middle Tennessee, western Georgia, and adjacent areas... if you've never listened to your local meteorologists before, the next 36 hours is the time for you to do so for the first time. Stop be a hard-headed money maker because this is 2025 and everybody knows it all. Pay attention. Take this as seriously. Regardless of what other days there are in history that are bigger than this in final tally, the next 36 hours, and especially tomorrow, are as real as it ever gets.

If you're in northwest Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, or far northeast Mississippi, you'll have me and the rest of my team to guide you through this at Tennessee Valley Weather. Our website is in my signature here. You can then access all of our platforms from there or finding us on Facebook.
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Godspeed, Fred. See you on the sunny side of Sunday.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I probably won't have too much more time to check in here as we will be busy communicating and getting ready for this.... But I wanted to make absolute sure that I had time to check in before I'm off doing my think tonight and tomorrow. There is zero, absolutely zero doubt in my mind, of what is going to unfold over the next 36 hours. If you live in central and north Alabama, central and east/north Mississippi, southern and middle Tennessee, western Georgia, and adjacent areas... if you've never listened to your local meteorologists before, the next 36 hours is the time for you to do so for the first time. Stop be a hard-headed money maker because this is 2025 and everybody knows it all. Pay attention. Take this as seriously. Regardless of what other days there are in history that are bigger than this in final tally, the next 36 hours, and especially tomorrow, are as real as it ever gets.

If you're in northwest Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, or far northeast Mississippi, you'll have me and the rest of my team to guide you through this at Tennessee Valley Weather. Our website is in my signature here. You can then access all of our platforms from there or finding us on Facebook.
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May I share this post across my social media feeds?
 
hurricaneguy said:
I like Brad a lot but chasers tend to be on the side of hype. He's not wrong though. Tomorrow could get bad and certainly has a high ceiling. And always it's best to tell friends and fam to be alert and have ways to get life saving alerts.
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Agreed, messaging should just be too, know where your local storm shelter is and pay attention to the weather tommorow. Regardless of analogies or threat area that you may be in.
 
It's happening folks. I don't see a way around it. I sent this out to 400 employees that work for Inline electric where I work at.



Team, I just wanted to share some information with you on staying safe during tomorrow's possible tornado outbreak. By now, everyone knows I'm a weather enthusiast. Tomorrow we are expecting a tornado outbreak. I wouldn't be sending this email out if I didn't think this was serious. The main threat tomorrow is from noon-midnight, with the greatest tornado risk coming into the Birmingham area from 4-10 p.m, I just wanted everyone to be aware of the caliber of this situation and to have a plan if you go under a tornado warning.

Make sure you have a place to go and have an emergency kit ready in the basement if you have one. Items such as sturdy shoes, helmets, flashlights, water, and non-perishable foods are the best things to have.

Make sure you have emergency alerts turned on on your phone.
For I phone users, go to settings, notifications, and scroll to the bottom for emergency alerts!
If you live in a mobile home, please stay with someone that has a basement or storm shelter for the day!

Keep your phone charged at all times!

Keep an eye on the sky and everyone please stay safe!
 
I've refrained from comparing this to 4/27 and still am. However, tomorrow's setup absolutely scares me and the only other outbreak that did was 4/27. That's all I'm gonna say.
 
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