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Not to mention the 06Z HRRR has very concerning supercelluar activity 12 AM to 6 AM across MS, so it may be a bimodal threat today.Really wondering if we're going to end up with back-to-back high risks here, honestly. The signal around St. Louis this evening for a dense coverage of long tracked supercells in an extreme shear environment is crazy.
And this is why I’m wide awake right now. I’ve read through last 10 pages hoping for something to downtrend away from Tuscaloosa. Every model that I can understand just has a giant target over us. This area of AL compares EVERY severe weather event to 2011. And here we are again with similar wording. It’s hard to understand how this is possible.The Day 2 for this Saturday reads every bit as strong (if not moreso) than the Day 2 from April 26th 2011. Some of that is just due to variation in how forecasts are worded. It's almost been a decade and a half.
04/26/11 Day 2:
Storm Prediction Center Apr 26, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.www.spc.noaa.gov
I knew this day would eventually come, but I can't believe we are actually comparing an upcoming event to 04/27. It's unbelievable to me.
It is getting pretty disturbing how similar *some* of the projected parameter space is to 4/27. Can only hope for a downtrend or a failure mode that mitigates the threat. I think it is quite clear this is probably the most ominous threat that most of AL/MS has experienced since 4/27.
1 PM Saturday in Mississippi....
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