• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Really wondering if we're going to end up with back-to-back high risks here, honestly. The signal around St. Louis this evening for a dense coverage of long tracked supercells in an extreme shear environment is crazy.
 
I'll be honest, I was making fun of Max Velocity yesterday for suggesting a High Risk for tonight (still think it was a stretch at the time and he is a clickbait king), but it is a possibility now. Crazy uptrend the last 12 hours for tonight (Friday).
 
andyhb said:
Really wondering if we're going to end up with back-to-back high risks here, honestly. The signal around St. Louis this evening for a dense coverage of long tracked supercells in an extreme shear environment is crazy.
Click to expand...
Not to mention the 06Z HRRR has very concerning supercelluar activity 12 AM to 6 AM across MS, so it may be a bimodal threat today.
 
Looks like the threat shifted a bit further west on the 06z HRRR due to the front being situated a bit further west. What implications could this maybe have?
 
Evan said:
The Day 2 for this Saturday reads every bit as strong (if not moreso) than the Day 2 from April 26th 2011. Some of that is just due to variation in how forecasts are worded. It's almost been a decade and a half.

04/26/11 Day 2:

Storm Prediction Center Apr 26, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

I knew this day would eventually come, but I can't believe we are actually comparing an upcoming event to 04/27. It's unbelievable to me.

It is getting pretty disturbing how similar *some* of the projected parameter space is to 4/27. Can only hope for a downtrend or a failure mode that mitigates the threat. I think it is quite clear this is probably the most ominous threat that most of AL/MS has experienced since 4/27.
Click to expand...
And this is why I’m wide awake right now. I’ve read through last 10 pages hoping for something to downtrend away from Tuscaloosa. Every model that I can understand just has a giant target over us. This area of AL compares EVERY severe weather event to 2011. And here we are again with similar wording. It’s hard to understand how this is possible.
 
Also note the increased convective strength and coverage on the TN/KY mode of the latest HRRR run. Not modelling full blown classic supercells like it is further north, but its an upward trend that needs watching.
 
wx_guy said:
1 PM Saturday in Mississippi....
View attachment 35429
Click to expand...
Excuse Me Wow GIF by Mashable
 
I do have one thing to say before I go off to bed.

We are looking at a potentially historic 24-48 hours of weather on deck. By now, I think many here have realized the gravity of what's at hand.

I really don't think this should be the thread for jokes, funny comments, memes, or insensitive remarks.

A whole lot of people are going to have their lives turned upside down this weekend. Don't forget about the impacts this type of weather can have on society.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top