Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[warneagle]

If it’s broyles…. ? lol

 

[Brice W]

Getting caught up on everything. Are we seeing a downtrend an uptick or the same?

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[tornado examiner]

Getting caught up on everything. Are we seeing a downtrend an uptick or the same?

IMO the same for right now. Can’t say either way.

 

[jiharris0220]

Doesn’t matter why?

Yes, at least in this run, because due to the extremely strong warm moist air advection and low level jet, it recovers quickly.

If anything, it seems the convection actually benefits the later storms as they prevent over mixing and set up boundaries of enhanced vorticity.

 

[warneagle]

Getting caught up on everything. Are we seeing a downtrend an uptick or the same?

I wouldn't call it a downtrend, just the models disagreeing on how to resolve the finer details that are gonna determine this event's ceiling.

 

[TH2002]

Well these runs certainly didn't answer any questions lol

Not alone, pal. I haven't even had the chance to ask any questions, because every time I blink there's five more pages on this thread - and the event hasn't even started yet!

 

[AJS]

OK NAM, that will do (Friday in SE MO/NE AR):

View attachment 35393View attachment 35394

Sweet mother…

 

[wx_guy]

0z HRRR localized look:


3 AM Saturday --- >



9 AM Saturday --->






2 PM Saturday --- >





5 PM Saturday --->





7 PM Saturday (as far out as it goes) --->

 

[Clancy]

Getting caught up on everything. Are we seeing a downtrend an uptick or the same?

We're seeing ticks and trends, but not yet fully sure what to make of 'em!

 

[Tennie]

It's getting quite late for me. I'm calling it a night, and I'll be checking back in tomorrow morning. In the meantime, I hope everyone here gets a good night's sleep, for I believe that we will be needing to benefit from it in the coming couple days!

 

[KevinH]

boundaries where low-level winds converge, which creates a rising motion and can serve as a focal point for storms in the absence of strong forcing for ascent; you often see them in the higher-end supercellular events in the south where you don't have a strongly-forced QLCS.

Oh OK.. Sorry I asked...

sigh (thank you though)

 

[Kds86z]

Oh OK.. Sorry I asked...

sigh (thank you though)

Don’t be sorry. It’s ok to ask

 

[Brice W]

I’ve noticed that we’ve had newcomers and some people that have emerged after not posting in a very long time. For the newcomers, ask questions and be respectful. For the people that have came back after dealing with the super outbreak. Were praying for you!

 

[Clancy]

Oh OK.. Sorry I asked...

sigh (thank you though)

Always ask questions! If you're wondering, there's almost always folks who are probably quietly wondering the same thing.

 

[wx_guy]

IF (and it is a big IF given it's 48 hours out) the HRRR were to verify closely, are there any analogs you'd compare it to? Honestly?

 

[Brice W]

0z HRRR localized look:


3 AM Saturday --- >

View attachment 35398

9 AM Saturday --->


View attachment 35399



2 PM Saturday --- >


View attachment 35400


5 PM Saturday --->

View attachment 35402



7 PM Saturday (as far out as it goes) --->

View attachment 35403

Seems like that convection is kinda what is going to initiate it the main event. I’d honestly have this rather than the capping that way the atmosphere has to take a little bit of time to get revamped. But like others have said, I’m not sure if it will matter. Still too early to tell IMO.

 

[KevinH]

Always ask questions! If you're wondering, there's almost always folks who are probably quietly wondering the same thing.

I figured it wasn't a good thing, but dang!

Curious to see what the models say about my neck of the woods Sat/Sun.

 

[JPWX]

I know one thing I'll definitely be doing this weekend:

Goodnight guys!

 

[cg9450]

I know one thing I'll definitely be doing this weekend:

Goodnight guys!

Me but with margs