Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[treypops]

First thanks for letting me join this board. As soon as I ask this question yall will realize I am no where near yalls level of weather knowledge LOL. I live in the Jackson. Ms metro area and based on what I see now we need to be on "high alert" starting ABOUT 7PM Friday until ABOUT 7PM Saturday with particular attention to the morning and early afternoon on Saturday. Is this a reasonable synopsis for our area ?

edited to add: I'll have my weather radio, TV and computer focused on weather the entire time of course

Welcome aboard

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Well they emptied the toolbox of every possible wording and phrasing they have to stress how significant this setup is, jeez.

 

[Equus]

The D3 wording is extremely aggressive, given the current contours of the moderate we'll probably see a high risk corridor pretty similar to 4/24/10 or 4/28/14 in MS and west central AL

 

[Cood101]

I meant to say risk areas LOL..

Updated... and updating

No worries. Though (hopefully never) if a D3 HIGH were ever issued. Yikes...

 

[Maxis_s]

Considering the very strong wording and the risk size, I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if there was a Day 2 HIGH.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

There's the D3 moderate expansion north

It was improvement, but still should see it extended northeast to cover northeast and east central AL and northwest GA. I would have it along and west of a Carrollton-Cartersville-Dalton line curling back to Chattanooga in Georgia. But that's just me.

 

[Jason Mills]

Any upgrade to high is most likely to come on D1.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Not a fan, but good disco from Grams.

god that wording is insane

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

No real mention of a high risk yet. Probably waiting on cam models to provide better info. For the next outlook issuance tomorrow.

That’s about as close to high risk as a Day 3 will ever be based on that discussion. You don’t see “numerous significant tornadoes” often at all in their tiered descriptors.

 

[MMWX]

18Z HRRR is downright scary for Friday night

66 Dew Point
2000+ J/kg of CAPE
200+ SRH
Plenty of shear.

All in my backyard in NW MS.

 

[kevinrock]

"Particularly volatile scenario"

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

And yes, I know there cannot be a Day 3 HIGH risk, but the language between the lines is very, very clear.

 

[tornado examiner]

And yes, I know there cannot be a Day 3 HIGH risk, but the language between the lines is very, very clear.

Day 2 high seems very possible.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

"Particularly volatile scenario"

that is when ya know crap is getting real

 

[ColdFront]

Day 2 high seems very possible.

I really think they’re wanting to see about any morning round storms/crapvection.

As was discussed earlier, the 18Z HRRR has storms forming in the warm sector at 12Z. However, it could be having issues handling the EML as Fred mentioned.

 

[KevinH]

No worries. Though (hopefully never) if a D3 HIGH were ever issued. Yikes...

D3 high risk is not possible at this time given how they have things set up. MOD is the highest D3 goes.

D2 however (which for Saturday, comes out tomorrow morning at 2am ET)

 

[TheSuckZone]

And yes, I know there cannot be a Day 3 HIGH risk, but the language between the lines is very, very clear.

Yeah, I think it's a matter of when and not if now

 

[Cood101]

"Particularly volatile scenario"

In GenZ Layman's Terms

"We're cooked, fam"

 

[Clancy]

Also, absolutely adore and appreciate that they're doing D3 updates now. For normal people I'm sure it doesn't matter at all but for weather geeks like us it's been really nice.

 

[lake.effect]

HRRR looks very, very bad for Saturday.