Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[treypops]

Yeah, I think it's a matter of when and not if now

We'll see. They should but they've been notoriously stingy with that designation in the past.

 

[Maxis_s]

So far it looks like the early Saturday morning convection on the 18z HRRR doesn't have much of an impact on atmospheric recovery.
EDIT: Yeah, it clears out and moves northward quickly enough just around 14z for CAPE values to begin rapidly increasing. Morning convection really might not be an issue.

 

[Equus]

Only two day two highs have been issued before (for 4/7/06 and 4/14/12) - always possible, but they've got to have exceptional confidence to do it before the D1

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Also, absolutely adore and appreciate that they're doing D3 updates now. For normal people I'm sure it doesn't matter at all but for weather geeks like us it's been really nice.

yesssss, the mid day update for D3 is perfection

 

[DetectiveWX]

Another thing to think about: the St Patrick's celebrations going on. Hope they're not turning a blind eye to this.

 

[tornado examiner]

Can any post post the HRRR?

 

[Clancy]

Despise HRRR's CAPE depiction for Saturday. Further east, a little quicker than NAM.

 

[Maxis_s]

Thank you HRRR, very cool.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

send help

 

[hurricaneguy]

Only two day two highs have been issued before (for 4/7/06 and 4/14/12) - always possible, but they've got to have exceptional confidence to do it before the D1

Wild that 04/27/11 didnt have a high risk D2

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Latest HRRR uptrends moisture further north for tomorrow, I really think the tornado threat for KY/TN/Northern AL is getting slept on a bit

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I uh---

 

[Clancy]

Refl. loop.

 

[tornado examiner]

View attachment 35333
send help

“Uh, its not looking good here Uh…”

 

[lake.effect]

End of run from 18z HRRR...kidney beans all the way from TN/AL border to the Gulf...moving northeast

 

[MMWX]

Just an insane depiction from the HRRR.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Refl. loop.
View attachment 35335

captain crunches oops all hooks

 

[Mike S]

Another thing to think about: the St Patrick's celebrations going on. Hope they're not turning a blind eye to this.

The parade in downtown Huntsville for Saturday was canceled in the last couple of hours.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

NAM seems to be the biggest offender as it often models high-capped environments with a high STP. HRRR tends to be more realistic and doesn't model the high capped areas with high STP as aggressively. I don't know if this is due to an underlying model architecture for producing higher STP values or if the HRRR is generally just less aggressive as a model.

I always get the sense systems like this weekend, while dreadful, contribute to an overall increased understanding and refinement of the forecasting tools we all rely on, and the atmospheric elements that lead to tornado genesis. For example, April 27th 2011 became a new measuring tool we can use to get a sense of how a storm will perform simply by how all its elements compare to that day.

 

[Clancy]

UH streaks off HRRR depict a couple morning to early afternoon supercells across AL into GA. This is followed several hours later by the supercell party in MS.