Parker Copeland
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- 0
- Location
- Zanesville, Ohio
screw school, I am staying up for D3 hahaha
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
Equus
Member
Yeah and that's honestly probably a good thing, I'm glad personally that moderate and high days are more limited now to highlight their seriousness, way too many moderates growing up issued on really iffy days and then outbreaks in 10 hatch slights lol
- Messages
- 99
- Location
- Columbiana, AL
I'm ready to say that we're looking at a major tornado outbreak IF the current model depictions persist.
Smokedevil
Member
I have worked 5 tornado aftermaths in my fire and EMS career.
One EF5 ( Smithville )
two EF3's ( tupelo and mantachie in 14 )
and amory in 23,
one EF2 ( mantachie ),
and a EF1 ( mantachie )
It never gets easier. And the overwhelming smell of pine stays with you your whole life.
Those that know, know what I mean.
It's utter chaos for the first hour or so after.
And it's times a 100 if it's at night.
You are Looking for the injured, but you sometimes come across the deceased.
All You can do is cover them up and move on.
You walk across broken boards, nails, limbs, power lines, mangled cars, etc, desperately straining to listen, and hoping you hear cries for help.
It's definitely no fun.
One EF5 ( Smithville )
two EF3's ( tupelo and mantachie in 14 )
and amory in 23,
one EF2 ( mantachie ),
and a EF1 ( mantachie )
It never gets easier. And the overwhelming smell of pine stays with you your whole life.
Those that know, know what I mean.
It's utter chaos for the first hour or so after.
And it's times a 100 if it's at night.
You are Looking for the injured, but you sometimes come across the deceased.
All You can do is cover them up and move on.
You walk across broken boards, nails, limbs, power lines, mangled cars, etc, desperately straining to listen, and hoping you hear cries for help.
It's definitely no fun.
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Adding two more tiers was undoubtedly a good thing.
Wish they chose less confusing names or dropped the names altogether and just did levels 1-5.
I've wasted hours of my life explaining how moderate is worse than enhanced.
Equus
Member
Yeah the enhanced vs moderate thing is rough on the general public haha, a lot of media trending toward just using the 1-5 scale is likely the right way to go
Stormchaser4life
Member
12z euro has incredible hodographs across MS and particularly AL but instability not that great due to widespread precipitation. Probably biggest fail mode for Sat. Too much precip and clouds limiting warm sector destabilization.
aujerm
Member
- Messages
- 99
- Location
- Cumming, GA
Several pages down now but Fred did mention he thought The euro was overdoing the messy convection and underestimating the cap.
Parker Copeland
Member
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- 0
- Location
- Zanesville, Ohio
euro overconvects like no tmr
don't think too much Abt it, besides the eml/cap would likely limit crapvection
I would point you to Fred’s posts on this. Yes, it’s a fail mode, and one that would completely sap the instability. However, each model has its biases (Euro and overturning the EML, GFS and saturation of the upper levels, NAM’s cold bias).
- Messages
- 1,411
- Location
- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I can remember many times when the cap was underforecasted
..I will say that's more apt to happen later in the season though.
Smokedevil
Member
You don't have to be an expert to know that if you live in the south, and the mets are forecasting severe weather, and if the sun is out the day of, you better look out.
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- Birmingham
Hmm
jiharris0220
Member
- Messages
- 1,574
- Location
- Wichita Falls
The Euro generally over mixes the EML and overconvects because it over does updraft sizes, sort of the same problem with the Fv3.
But even then, the euro is caving towards the GFS regarding parameter space and instability.
Who is weather tracks? Kind of a bold statement to put out there on Twitter when Spann has taken pains to say 4/27/11 isn’t an analog.
Equus
Member
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- 2,829
- Location
- Smithville MS
Yeah. Throwing out 4/27 just willy-nilly as analog for one particular severe threat is just to me irresponsible and honestly click bait
Equus
Member
I mean the overall mid-level synoptic pattern with placement of main and secondary lows is decently similar to 4/27, but there is a lot more going into it than just the 500mb pattern (and 4/27 being in late April had vastly better thermos lol) - people shouldn't compare the two just because of that
Every severe event got compared to the Super Outbreak til 4/27 so we'll probably keep having the 4/27 comparisons every setup until another outbreak eclipses it
Every severe event got compared to the Super Outbreak til 4/27 so we'll probably keep having the 4/27 comparisons every setup until another outbreak eclipses it
RollTide18
Member
- Messages
- 156
- Location
- Montgomery, AL
Please correct me if I’m wrong here, while caps are not necessarily good, it can spare some areas right? When and where the cap breaks is where all hell breaks loose though.