Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Clancy]

12Z GEFS follows trending increase in SCP probability well into North GA and even far SE TN.

 

[Parker Copeland]

p much all models have a new run out or in prog

12z gfs is out and 12z gefs is like 168hrs in

 

[Parker Copeland]

aaaand here comes 12z euro

 

[keithGA]

Trey has a new video out.

 

[Parker Copeland]

MS/AL line, I think in the Quitman area

 

[Equus]

With regards to potential capping, the source region for parcels is key, and we have some very dry droughty weather upwind; it seems likely a lot of this will be advected and it's hard to avoid some sort of capping when we're dealing with that sort of source. Feel like there will definitely be a substantial EML in place with the modeled mid-level lapse rates being so steep

 

[Parker Copeland]

With regards to potential capping, the source region for parcels is key, and we have some very dry droughty weather upwind; it seems likely a lot of this will be advected and it's hard to avoid some sort of capping when we're dealing with that sort of source. Feel like there will definitely be a substantial EML in place with the modeled mid-level lapse rates being so steep

yeah, Sat may very well be a long-ahh-day in a tracking sense

 

[Parker Copeland]

Sats sounding looks soo much better too, actually good lapse rates

 

[Smokedevil]

But what time will it be at my house?

Or, my favorite, right after a met says it will be at so and so location at 8:35, and someone who literally lives 5 mins from there asks, but what about my town? And do I need to shelter?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Alabama weather blogs Midday update says : "plan for a high impact, severe weather event/outbreak to affect Alabama this weekend."

 

[Mavsfan10]

Trey has a new video out.

 

[Parker Copeland]

Alabama weather blogs Midday update says : "plan for a high impact, severe weather event/outbreak to affect Alabama this weekend."

uh ohh

 

[tornado examiner]

Saturday may very well be a day 3 moderate…

 

[ColdFront]

Trey let out an audible “wow” when he pulled a proximity sounding from Saturday. Said it’s the first time he had looked so it was a real reaction. Said it’s an upper echelon environment.

 

[Parker Copeland]

Trey let out an audible “wow” when he pulled a proximity sounding from Saturday. Said it’s the first time he had looked so it was a real reaction. Said it’s an upper echelon environment.

I haven't seen vid cuz I have much shorter school days and don't have sub 50min left to watch it rn, will so so when I get home

 

[tornado examiner]

If the cam models say unhampered sustained large supercells are on the way. Make way for the forbidden pink sharpy.
Maybe…

 

[JPN366]

Sats sounding looks soo much better too, actually good lapse rates

Good as in good, or good as in bad?

 

[Parker Copeland]

Good as in good, or good as in bad?

3/21/21 had poor lapse rates and a much smaller hodograph, where Sats sounding genially, looks better, away more shear and lapse rates are wild, and would help favor longer lived cells with less cycles

 

[Equus]

This is an easy high risk slam dunk 20 years ago already; they're much more reserved in issuing them now but we are headed that way if we don't trend down and confidence remains high

 

[MMWX]

This is an easy high risk slam dunk 20 years ago already; they're much more reserved in issuing them now but we are headed that way if we don't trend down and confidence remains high

To be fair, 20 years ago they didn't have "Marginal" and "Enhanced" categories. A lot easier to max out a 3-tier system than a 5-tier system.