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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

TornadoFan17 said:
Dew points are the best I've seen in a bit for this system. >60° F dewpoints get up into the Missouri bootheel. 62 in Memphis.

Certainly seems to have better parameters overall than the GFS/EURO had.
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Lunch break now. Looking over gfs 12z. Seems be ramping up the threat also for
Friday evening now … think moderate risk be coming day or so
 
Novice weather enthusiast here and B’ham metro resident. Could projected rainfall have a limiting effect on the magnitude? Are there other factors that could calm things down? I’ll be prepared for the worst, but hoping there’s possible mitigation.
 
JPN366 said:
Novice weather enthusiast here and B’ham metro resident. Could projected rainfall have a limiting effect on the magnitude? Are there other factors that could calm things down? I’ll be prepared for the worst, but hoping there’s possible mitigation.
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Best case for it town down would be. Messy contamination…. It with high mbl. Looks doubtful
 
JPN366 said:
Novice weather enthusiast here and B’ham metro resident. Could projected rainfall have a limiting effect on the magnitude? Are there other factors that could calm things down? I’ll be prepared for the worst, but hoping there’s possible mitigation.
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Not really. If anything it just means these potential monsters are gonna be rain-wrapped
 
JPN366 said:
Novice weather enthusiast here and B’ham metro resident. Could projected rainfall have a limiting effect on the magnitude? Are there other factors that could calm things down? I’ll be prepared for the worst, but hoping there’s possible mitigation.
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Welcome! I'll leave more precise answers to the mets and other various mega-smarties in here, but yes, early-day rainfall theoretically could (and in many previous cases, has) reduce instability and thus severe risk some, but quite a few of the models aren't showing the messy solution we'd wanna see for that. Using the NAM purely for visual example, we see relatively little getting in the way of the warm sector on Saturday.
floop-nam-2025031212.ref1km_ptype.us_se.gif
 
JPWX said:
I got asked just last night about what the tornado probability for Saturday will be. I'm like no idea yet. From people who don't know what county they live in or even what area they live in, it's very difficult to message because I have to hold back from what I really want to say to these people. And some of them have lived in the same place all their lives too.
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Not hard to believe since there are still folks who don't understand the difference between a watch or a warning.
 
Brandon said:
Not hard to believe since there are still folks who don't understand the difference between a watch or a warning.
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Yep
 
JPWX said:
I got asked just last night about what the tornado probability for Saturday will be. I'm like no idea yet. From people who don't know what county they live in or even what area they live in, it's very difficult to message because I have to hold back from what I really want to say to these people. And some of them have lived in the same place all their lives too.
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But what time will it be at my house?
 
I'm curious to what the longest consecutive hours a tornado watch has been over JAN/BMX NWS offices jurisdiction, I would think we might possibly get close to some areas longest in those areas.
 
Clancy said:
Thinking about my dad, who would stand on the porch saying "Dang it son, I wanna see it!"
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That reminds me so much of my grandfather who would go outside on the porch at night to look at storms in his underwear. They lived across the street from the only community storm shelter in town and on April 8th 98 people were arriving to go in the shelter and there stood my grandfather on the porch in his underwear peeing, looking off towards the south west at the incoming storm. He hears me coming out the door and says "don't you turn on that god *click* blank light. And there he stood in all his glory for the whole community to see.
 
stallions3peat said:
That reminds me so much of my grandfather who would go outside on the porch at night to look at storms in his underwear. They lived across the street from the only community storm shelter in town and on April 8th 98 people were arriving to go in the shelter and there stood my grandfather on the porch in his underwear peeing, looking off towards the south west at the incoming storm. He hears me coming out the door and says "don't you turn on that god *click* blank light. And there he stood in all his glory for the whole community to see.
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I think it’s safe to say that nobody has ever been more Alabama in their entire life
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm curious to what the longest consecutive hours a tornado watch has been over JAN/BMX NWS offices jurisdiction, I would think we might possibly get close to some areas longest in those areas.
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Back in January 1999. Meg Nws Memphis area. We were under a tornado watch almost 24 hours Wild
Time. Two them was PDS
 
stallions3peat said:
That reminds me so much of my grandfather who would go outside on the porch at night to look at storms in his underwear. They lived across the street from the only community storm shelter in town and on April 8th 98 people were arriving to go in the shelter and there stood my grandfather on the porch in his underwear peeing, looking off towards the south west at the incoming storm. He hears me coming out the door and says "don't you turn on that god *click* blank light. And there he stood in all his glory for the whole community to see.
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oh but when I do it I'm ruining thanksgiving
 
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