Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Clancy]

GFS has been consistently bringing the LLJ into the area in the late afternoon, and has very strong kinematics in place by early evening. These are just some crazy helicity values, considering the instability we'll have in play.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Parents and students at a local High School are mad that the Prom has been moved from Saturday night to Thursday night because of the severe weather threat. Sounds like a good idea to me.

great idea. *last* thing we need is a prom getting hit by a high-end tornado

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

GFS has been consistently bringing the LLJ into the area in the late afternoon, and has very strong kinematics in place by early evening. These are just some crazy helicity values, considering the instability we'll have in play.

View attachment 35069View attachment 35070

holy crap

 

[Brice W]

GFS has been consistently bringing the LLJ into the area in the late afternoon, and has very strong kinematics in place by early evening. These are just some crazy helicity values, considering the instability we'll have in play.

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WOW! I haven’t seen totals like that since the event leading up to Greenfield or 5/20/19.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Parents and students at a local High School are mad that the Prom has been moved from Saturday night to Thursday night because of the severe weather threat. Sounds like a good idea to me.

That's smart. Hopefully anyone in the MS/AL area with plans on Saturday has a backup or at least a way to stay aware of the weather

 

[ColdFront]

Spann the man has come in with some serious wording regarding Saturday and more truths regarding online hype trains.

I do not understand the 4/27/11 comparisons those clowns are making on twitter.
On 4/27/11: You had high cape (MU CAPE 3155 k/j) superimposed over 99.9th percentile wind fields (629 SRH, 44 knots of 0-1 shear) not to mention 10+ EHI and 17.5 STP covering a large portion of central Alabama

 

[Brice W]

Still some questions marks, get about two days out from the event and I think we can start to gauge the caliber of the event better. It definitely doesn't look good though.

Oh yeah for sure. I’m not leading into this completely either. Especially the last big early setup. However, I can see that some of these soundings look as volatile as I’ve seen in quite sometime.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

View attachment 35065
omg, Southern MS......

Which office is/was GGG?

 

[Ledian]

Here's a sounding i pulled from my hometown late Friday/early Saturday

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

18z gfs, downtown bham........

 

[lake.effect]

I do not understand the 4/27/11 comparisons those clowns are making on twitter.
On 4/27/11: You had high cape (MU CAPE 3155 k/j) superimposed over 99.9th percentile wind fields (629 SRH, 44 knots of 0-1 shear) not to mention 10+ EHI and 17.5 STP covering a large portion of central Alabama

I mean dude...some of the soundings for Saturday are not that far off from these numbers.

 

[warneagle]

Which office is/was GGG?

Longview, TX if it's the same as the airport.

 

[Bulkshear]

Oh yeah for sure. I’m not leading into this completely either. Especially the last big early setup. However, I can see that some of these soundings like as volatile as I’ve seen in quite sometime.

There isn’t a comparison. This won’t be anywhere near that day but we still may need to implore the O word.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

GFS has been consistently bringing the LLJ into the area in the late afternoon, and has very strong kinematics in place by early evening. These are just some crazy helicity values, considering the instability we'll have in play.

View attachment 35069View attachment 35070

Kentucky will definitely be in play of this holds serve.

 

[ColdFront]

I mean dude...some of the soundings for Saturday are not that far off from these numbers.

Brother, come on. I don’t want to clog this thread up going back and forth on this… but the parameters on 4/27/11 were 99th percentile and covered pretty much the entire outbreak area.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Got a question, maybe the more knowledgeable people know, but with the deeping low pressure that's moving through Memphis wouldn't that increase instability just to the southeast (central Alabama) due to height falls, basically localizing the instability? Seen this before. One of the reasons I'm questioning the validity of the SBCape maps right now. Maybe somebody else can chime in.

 

[keithGA]

View attachment 35066
.....

Moisture return no longer a problem

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Moisture return no longer a problem

yup.....

 

[Aaron Rider]

So I did a thing using this sounding. My background and work is in Statistics (I have a Master's in it, and I'm a Senior Data Scientist), so the SARS Sounding Analog in the Sharppy-based soundings intrigues me. So I dug into how they are created. It turns out the analogs are ALL deterministic, meaning it takes a few variables from the sounding (like ML CAPE) and goes plus or minus 100 is a match, etc. So it's a very rough and crude technique to find analogs. Instead, I wanted to take a different approach.

So I took the entire SARS supercell tornado database off its Github and ran it through some statistics. Then I took the sounding above as a guinea pig and plugged its parameters into the model. My model uses Mahalanobis distance and k-nearest neighbors to find the 10 closest matches statistically to each sounding's variables.

For anyone curious, this returned the 10 closest soundings ---> 40% had EF2+ tornadoes and 60% were tornadic. Very strong indications of the atmosphere we may face on Saturday.

Thank you for your labors

 

[jiharris0220]

I mean dude...some of the soundings for Saturday are not that far off from these numbers.

That’s not really the point though.

It’s not about whether an event is of similar setup to 2011, but more so people making the comparison every single time a system comes by Dixie alley. Which does absolutely nothing but spread unnecessary fear and panic while bringing down public trust when said setup obviously doesn’t transpire.