Whenever I keep looking at soundings in Alabama on the supercell sounding analogue systems; December 16, 2000 keeps popping up.
James spann remembers that event well.
James spann remembers that event well.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
lake.effect
Member
This is nuts coming from a Global model at 96 hours...wonder how much the CAMs will handle the thermodynamics. With shear and helicity this high, any additional CAPE will simply increase the ceiling and the area under threat.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
omg, Southern MS......
Brice W
Member
Yeah none of these analogs and soundings are something you wanna see.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
.....
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
yup, May 2003 was a huge ahh outbreak sequence that lasted a week, this is only like 2 days, but that as an analog is rather alarming
Lots of may 2003 and repeated December 16 2000 when looking at soundings in Alabama.
Seems like CAPE has been underdone by some in the past. If that is the case again we're gonna have big problems
So I did a thing using this sounding. My background and work is in Statistics (I have a Master's in it, and I'm a Senior Data Scientist), so the SARS Sounding Analog in the Sharppy-based soundings intrigues me. So I dug into how they are created. It turns out the analogs are ALL deterministic, meaning it takes a few variables from the sounding (like ML CAPE) and goes plus or minus 100 is a match, etc. So it's a very rough and crude technique to find analogs. Instead, I wanted to take a different approach.
So I took the entire SARS supercell tornado database off its Github and ran it through some statistics. Then I took the sounding above as a guinea pig and plugged its parameters into the model. My model uses Mahalanobis distance and k-nearest neighbors to find the 10 closest matches statistically to each sounding's variables.
For anyone curious, this returned the 10 closest soundings ---> 40% had EF2+ tornadoes and 60% were tornadic. Very strong indications of the atmosphere we may face on Saturday.
jiharris0220
Member
Spann the man has come in with some serious wording regarding Saturday and more truths regarding online hype trains.
Just your typical sub 990 mb low during March in Tennessee, nothing to look at
Brice W
Member
I can honestly see those being verified as of now with this setup. This thing is on the cusp of looking like a upper-echelon type of outbreak.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
wow, really cool and terrifying
stallions3peat
Member
Parents and students at a local High School are mad that the Prom has been moved from Saturday night to Thursday night because of the severe weather threat. Sounds like a good idea to me.
Brice W
Member
Without a doubt I think we’ll see an EF2+ tornado in terms of intensity. Just hope that doesn’t verify.
Still some questions marks, get about two days out from the event and I think we can start to gauge the caliber of the event better. It definitely doesn't look good though.