Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[UncleJuJu98]

Whenever I keep looking at soundings in Alabama on the supercell sounding analogue systems; December 16, 2000 keeps popping up.

James spann remembers that event well.

 

[wx_guy]

Okay, 18z GFS sounding central (tad south of central) MS at 18z on Saturday.

 

[lake.effect]

18Z GFS sounding from Saturday afternoon from North-Central MS.
View attachment 35059

This is nuts coming from a Global model at 96 hours...wonder how much the CAMs will handle the thermodynamics. With shear and helicity this high, any additional CAPE will simply increase the ceiling and the area under threat.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

omg, Southern MS......

 

[Brice W]

View attachment 35065
omg, Southern MS......

Yeah none of these analogs and soundings are something you wanna see.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

.....

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Yeah none of these analogs and soundings are something you wanna see.

yup, May 2003 was a huge ahh outbreak sequence that lasted a week, this is only like 2 days, but that as an analog is rather alarming

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah none of these analogs and soundings are something you wanna see.

Lots of may 2003 and repeated December 16 2000 when looking at soundings in Alabama.

 

[Clancy]

I've nothing good to say about this: 987 mb secondary low over Nashville at 21Z

 

[UK_EF4]

18z GFS bad as it is but if that trough trends any north then that would be a seriously high-end outbreak. Applicable to more than just this run but that's really going to be something to look out for...

 

[TheSuckZone]

This is nuts coming from a Global model at 96 hours...wonder how much the CAMs will handle the thermodynamics. With shear and helicity this high, any additional CAPE will simply increase the ceiling and the area under threat.

Seems like CAPE has been underdone by some in the past. If that is the case again we're gonna have big problems

 

[aujerm]

Looks like the upper level trough has deepened a bit from 12z

 

[wx_guy]

Okay, 18z GFS sounding central (tad south of central) MS at 18z on Saturday.

View attachment 35063

So I did a thing using this sounding. My background and work is in Statistics (I have a Master's in it, and I'm a Senior Data Scientist), so the SARS Sounding Analog in the Sharppy-based soundings intrigues me. So I dug into how they are created. It turns out the analogs are ALL deterministic, meaning it takes a few variables from the sounding (like ML CAPE) and goes plus or minus 100 is a match, etc. So it's a very rough and crude technique to find analogs. Instead, I wanted to take a different approach.

So I took the entire SARS supercell tornado database off its Github and ran it through some statistics. Then I took the sounding above as a guinea pig and plugged its parameters into the model. My model uses Mahalanobis distance and k-nearest neighbors to find the 10 closest matches statistically to each sounding's variables.

For anyone curious, this returned the 10 closest soundings ---> 40% had EF2+ tornadoes and 60% were tornadic. Very strong indications of the atmosphere we may face on Saturday.

 

[jiharris0220]

Spann the man has come in with some serious wording regarding Saturday and more truths regarding online hype trains.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I've nothing good to say about this: 987 mb secondary low over Nashville at 21Z
View attachment 35067

Just your typical sub 990 mb low during March in Tennessee, nothing to look at

 

[Brice W]

Lots of may 2003 and repeated December 16 2000 when looking at soundings in Alabama.

I can honestly see those being verified as of now with this setup. This thing is on the cusp of looking like a upper-echelon type of outbreak.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

So I did a thing using this sounding. My background and work is in Statistics (I have a Master's in it, and I'm a Senior Data Scientist), so the SARS Sounding Analog in the Sharppy-based soundings intrigues me. So I dug into how they are created. It turns out the analogs are ALL deterministic, meaning it takes a few variables from the sounding (like ML CAPE) and goes plus or minus 100 is a match, etc. So it's a very rough and crude technique to find analogs. Instead, I wanted to take a different approach.

So I took the entire SARS supercell tornado database off its Github and ran it through some statistics. Then I took the sounding above as a guinea pig and plugged its parameters into the model. My model uses Mahalanobis distance and k-nearest neighbors to find the 10 closest matches statistically to each sounding's variables.

For anyone curious, this returned the 10 closest soundings ---> 40% had EF2+ tornadoes and 60% were tornadic. Very strong indications of the atmosphere we may face on Saturday.

wow, really cool and terrifying

 

[stallions3peat]

Parents and students at a local High School are mad that the Prom has been moved from Saturday night to Thursday night because of the severe weather threat. Sounds like a good idea to me.

 

[Brice W]

So I did a thing using this sounding. My background and work is in Statistics (I have a Master's in it, and I'm a Senior Data Scientist), so the SARS Sounding Analog in the Sharppy-based soundings intrigues me. So I dug into how they are created. It turns out the analogs are ALL deterministic, meaning it takes a few variables from the sounding (like ML CAPE) and goes plus or minus 100 is a match, etc. So it's a very rough and crude technique to find analogs. Instead, I wanted to take a different approach.

So I took the entire SARS supercell tornado database off its Github and ran it through some statistics. Then I took the sounding above as a guinea pig and plugged its parameters into the model. My model uses Mahalanobis distance and k-nearest neighbors to find the 10 closest matches statistically to each sounding's variables.

For anyone curious, this returned the 10 closest soundings ---> 40% had EF2+ tornadoes and 60% were tornadic. Very strong indications of the atmosphere we may face on Saturday.

Without a doubt I think we’ll see an EF2+ tornado in terms of intensity. Just hope that doesn’t verify.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I can honestly see those being verified as of now with this setup. This thing is on the cusp of looking like a upper-echelon type of outbreak.

Still some questions marks, get about two days out from the event and I think we can start to gauge the caliber of the event better. It definitely doesn't look good though.