Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[KevinH]

Well - Spann is starting to “ratchet up” ($1 to unclejuju) his wording regarding this weekend. Never good to see him talk about a significant severe weather situation 3-4 days out).

He said “strap in”… don’t like that

 

[KevinH]

I think you have a potential shot at reaching 3000j of sbcape in central Alabama. Again it depends on the low pressure imo. Will see though. 2000-2500j of sbcape is still relatively high cape.

Sign up for Twitter. lol BMX is AMAZING with how interactive and responsive they are.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, in the good ol days the standard recommendation was to call (toll free!). As a kid I memorized Peachtree City's number. Not sure what BMX's is but if you don't have social media you can call them, give your precise geographical location and credentials and give a concise description of what you're reporting. That's how it was done in FFC's jurisdiction back then, dunno if it's changed or not.

I have the advanced storm spotters certificate, so I'll make sure to let them know lol, and have the number ready. I'm just hoping for a awesome picture, and being able to say I saw a tornado in person lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This is a projected sounding at 3pm Saturday in downtown Bham on the GFS.

 

[Chris3024]

Updraft helicity from the NOAA C-Shield model.

Worth noting that model tends to put out very over-exaggerated UH values, so I wouldn't expect reality to look anything like that. That said, I think the general placement of those tracks make sense.

Not gonna lie, I chuckled a little seeing that. Of course, one of those tracks takes the infamous Highway 69 track.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

This is a projected sounding at 3pm Saturday in downtown Bham on the GFS. View attachment 35053

holy moly

 

[South AL Wx]

I got a question, so if I spot a tornado or funnel cloud am I able to call the NWS of BMX. And tell them I see one? I'll have great view of any northern Jefferson county storm.

They have an online storm reporting form:

Submit a Storm Report

On an active severe weather day, especially if you see a funnel cloud, tornado, or damage, they should have people manning the phones non-stop to take reports. So, I would say call them (since you don't have Twitter).

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

He said “strap in”… don’t like that

Yup, just gave it a listen. Spann is usually reserved but he let out a few alarming remarks in that video. If Spann is concerned that’s not good

 

[paullyl]

Yup, just gave it a listen. Spann is usually reserved but he let out a few alarming remarks in that video. If Spann is concerned that’s not good

Rare that Spann speaks like this.

 

[Scott81]

I seen where brett Adair is now saying alabama could have some big tornadoes Saturday.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

I seen where brett Adair is now saying alabama could have some big tornadoes Saturday.

Where? Can you repost it here

 

[lake.effect]

18z GFS is rolling and so far, it ups the ceiling from the previous run. Verbatim would imply a likely tornado outbreak over a large area.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

18z GFS is rolling and so far, it ups the ceiling from the previous run. Verbatim would imply a likely tornado outbreak over a large area.

oh crap, here we goo

 

[Clancy]

18Z GFS mostly holds serve. Trough looks a touch more impressive. LLJ a little stronger over GA. Western 1/3rd of GA maintains 60+ dews well into the overnight.

 

[lake.effect]

oh crap, here we goo

Yeah...I'll be interested to see what those averaged soundings look like on Saturday afternoon. Basically, if you take an average sounding of all of MS, most of AL and LA and parts of TN you'd get a PDS TOR box.

Impressive soundings extend well into Ohio and Kentucky as well.

 

[ColdFront]

18Z GFS mostly holds serve. Trough looks a touch more impressive. LLJ a little stronger over GA. Western 1/3rd of GA maintains 60+ dews well into the overnight.

That warm sector getting dragged eastward as the night goes on as depicted in the 18Z GFS is a dangerous look. Any cells still ahead of the line will be able to keep tapping into that energy instead of running into a more unfavorable environment as the night goes on.

 

[Clancy]

That warm sector getting dragged eastward as the night goes on as depicted in the 18Z GFS is a dangerous look. Any cells still ahead of the line will be able to keep tapping into that energy instead of running into a more unfavorable environment.

Yep, relatively rare thing for Georgia, and most certainly could lead to a dangerous overnight scenario.

 

[Clancy]

18Z GFS sounding from Saturday afternoon from North-Central MS.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

some1 just said GFS may be caving tword the UKMET solution, which is doom run p much

 

[jiharris0220]

18Z GFS sounding from Saturday afternoon from North-Central MS.
View attachment 35059

Here’s another from south-western Mississippi.