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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Mundiejc said:
This forum absolutely could use better moderation. I’m a 40 year old hobbyist who has been on weather forums for almost 20 years now. Many would do better to ask questions or read vs posting all the time and wishcasting. Maybe I should be better about blocking folks - but 70% of the banter on each model run seems to be folks who are parroting stuff from hype posters on twitter or who literally have no idea what they are talking about.

Weather is one of those things that, even if you know how to read model output, experience and wisdom and messaging are just as important. Anyone saying a storm system is certain to be X 4 days out for severe or snow is not someone you should be listening to.
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As someone who spends a lot of time on forums of my favorite sports teams, let me just say that this place is almost comically restrained and judicious by comparison...
 
aujerm said:
Which ironically enough was during the SEC basketball championship tournament. Almost 17 years ago to the day.
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Mississippi State vs Alabama.

Alabama player hits a 3 to tie the game and send it to overtime. If the game ended, thousands would be exiting the Georgia dome at the same time the tornado was going through Atlanta.
 
As if this morning's CIPS values weren't high enough, the 12Z suite has come in with some intense numbers. Strongly favors a corridor of central MS/AL/GA for strong, long-tracked tornado potential.
1741715784607.png1741715793335.png1741715802179.png1741715810772.png1741715815025.png1741715901132.png
 
Forgive the potentially amateur question, but is the steady decrease on the number of analogs indicative of a truly unique set up, or the result of variables and parameters becoming more refined as we get closer to the event?

Also a few days ago, 75% of the analogs were tornado producers, now it's 60%. Is that a downtrend, or just a lack of confidence from the aforementioned unique variables?
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Mississippi State vs Alabama.

Alabama player hits a 3 to tie the game and send it to overtime. If the game ended, thousands would be exiting the Georgia dome at the same time the tornado was going through Atlanta
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TornadoFan17 said:
Mississippi State vs Alabama.

Alabama player hits a 3 to tie the game and send it to overtime. If the game ended, thousands would be exiting the Georgia dome at the same time the tornado was going through Atlanta.
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ESPN did a wonderful 30for30 on this called Miracle 3.
 
Obviously Saturday has the attention, but Friday is what is going to impact me. Moisture levels seem to be just enough to verify a tornado threat for Friday in NW MS.
sfctd-imp.conus.png

Here is a sounding from my home county (Desoto County, MS. The furthest NW county in the state). If Moisture even slightly overperforms what is being modeled, Friday night will be a long night for many. CAPE is a little low, though.
Desoto County.png
 
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andyhb said:
Trough geometry for Saturday is getting more dangerous with each run on the Euro. Look how it's broadening out, increasing the wavelength by several hundred miles in 24 hours cc: @Fred Gossage.

View attachment 35031
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I was just going to ask about Euro because all I have seen so far is GFS lol I know broad troughs are NOT a good thing, but good GRIEF :(

(For those wondering, this GIF is for 8pm ET for the last several of the Euro's runs, right @andyhb ?)
 
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