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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Big time wording from Jackson via NWS chat regarding how impactful Saturday can be. Noting the potential for significant type of weather and being a "be ready" type of day.
 
warneagle said:
There’s definitely a balance between giving people as much advance warning about a significant severe weather event as possible so that they can prepare for it and not overstating the level of confidence in a forecast. Unfortunately the general public doesn’t have a great understanding of how probability works so communicating uncertainty to them isn’t an easy task, and those of y’all who have to do this for a living have my sympathy.

The people who do the OMG MASSIVE OUTBREAK WEDGES INCOMING hype every time a 15% shows up on the day 4-8 outlook make that task much harder because them doing that once a week dilutes the message for the few times a year where you actually do have the synoptically evident red letter day and need to raise the alarm in advance. And as we’ve seen all too well the last few years, the generally low level of media literacy among the public means people aren’t able to distinguish what is and isn’t a reliable source of information so the social media hypemongers drown out the actual experts, and then people turn around and blame the experts when the OMG MEGA WEDGES that the weed trimmers of the world are screaming about don’t materialize. Super healthy information economy we’ve got here.
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Counterpoint: The Hype is why we show up in the first place. Sometimes it's more fun than the actual event. I think there's an interesting psychological component to this, probably related to Dopamine release, FOMO, Bandwagon-jumping and all sorts of other fun mind tricks.
 
Mundiejc said:
This forum absolutely could use better moderation. I’m a 40 year old hobbyist who has been on weather forums for almost 20 years now. Many would do better to ask questions or read vs posting all the time and wishcasting. Maybe I should be better about blocking folks - but 70% of the banter on each model run seems to be folks who are parroting stuff from hype posters on twitter or who literally have no idea what they are talking about.

Weather is one of those things that, even if you know how to read model output, experience and wisdom and messaging are just as important. Anyone saying a storm system is certain to be X 4 days out for severe or snow is not someone you should be listening to.
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You're welcome to start your own weather forum.

An overmoderated forum sucks.

Now, back to your regularly schedule Spring severe season.
 
cincywx said:
the 12z GFS troublingly keeps DPs in the mid 60s from about 03z Saturday through early Sunday for MS/AL with hardly any interruption - a trend worth monitoring for sure.

18z Saturday just east of Moundville, AL, courtesy of the 12z GFS:

View attachment 35015
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So the top analogs are May 2003 again and 11/15/89. Oof.
 
lake.effect said:
Counterpoint: The Hype is why we show up in the first place. Sometimes it's more fun than the actual event. I think there's an interesting psychological component to this, probably related to Dopamine release, FOMO, Bandwagon-jumping and all sorts of other fun mind tricks.
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That’s fine for weenies on a weather forum but it’s still not the kind of thing you want to be putting out there for public consumption. The public needs good safety information from actual experts, not a dopamine hit.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I'm starting to think the Euro is overturning its EML and just over-convecting on Saturday just because reasons. It's had a bad problem with that for a good 3+ years now, off and on, with systems here. It's shown many overturned warm sectors or coastal complexes in the medium range that never ended up happening. Given the general low amplitude nature of the flow, the mid-level source region of the flow tracking back to drought areas to the west/southwest, and robust moisture return Friday delaying until the overnight to our west for the most part, I'm starting to think this may be another one of those cases. The GFS has been course-correcting with the synoptic layout... trending a bit broader with the Saturday trough and nudging northwest, shifting a bit west with the Great Lakes low to allow a warm sector that stands up. It's trended closer to the Euro with the larger-scale, but I think it's handling the EML/capping better. I still think there is Friday late night potential for trouble up here in northwest AL / southern TN / northeast MS, but this is taking Saturday in a potentially volatile direction for about the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of MS, most of AL, west and north-central GA, and southern middle TN.
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I am just seeing this.

I was getting my hopes up reading the first part of this post thinking that things were DOWNTRENDING. Those hopes fell through the ground and went straight to hell by the time I finished reading this post :(

@Fred Gossage this is nothing against you FYI. Your efforts, contributions on this forum are invaluable. I appreciate you just flat out telling things how you see it and NOT sugar coating anything. That does not help anyone. KEEP IT UP FRED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now I will finish catching up to the remaining posts. The CAMS cant come soon enough/

EDIT: As I read over your post again, I remember someone on this thread saying that we do NOT want to see the trough move NW, and here we are.
 
warneagle said:
That’s fine for weenies on a weather forum but it’s still not the kind of thing you want to be putting out there for public consumption. The public needs good safety information from actual experts, not a dopamine hit.
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Fair point, but I would venture to guess very few members of the general public are getting their weather information from here or wx Twitter.

Also, if the choice is between zero awareness and mild panic for potentially big tornado events, wouldn't mild panic be preferrable?

Getting off topic...
 
cincywx said:
the 12z GFS troublingly keeps DPs in the mid 60s from about 03z Saturday through early Sunday for MS/AL with hardly any interruption - a trend worth monitoring for sure.

18z Saturday just east of Moundville, AL, courtesy of the 12z GFS:

View attachment 35015
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Again the hodgraphs are absurd. Huge sickles, way too many enlarged sickle hodgraphs I've seen lately.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
You able to share?
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Don't want to get my account ban but basically they are concern about Saturday. Conditions suggest a significant severe weather event across much of the area, lasting from morning into the afternoon. They will be treating Friday and Saturday as two separate events with different graphics for each day.
 
JBishopwx said:
Don't want to get my account ban but basically they are concern about Saturday. Conditions suggest a significant severe weather event across much of the area, lasting from morning into the afternoon. They will be treating Friday and Saturday as two separate events with different graphics for each day.
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Oh okay. I didn't know you could get ban. My bad lol
 
Fred Gossage said:
View attachment 34996
F3 or greater intensity tornadoes from the day after the Palm Sunday 1994 outbreak through the end of 2023.
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See how the number drops off when you get to the AL/GA state line. That has always kind of baffled me to some degree. Then again, GA has FL to the south of it and not the Gulf like MS/AL. Under the right parameters though (Saturday??) that doesnt matter.

I also remember what you said about winds coming from S or SW and not the SE, which can make a difference. GA's location to the Gulf as well as those winds (as well as a few other hundred things) I am sure has had something to do with GA smaller numbers compared to AL.

For now.... :(
 
Out of the 14 years of being here in West Central GA, I do not think I have seen such potential AND confidence this early :( As far as timing for East AL/North and West Central GA, things seem to be kicking off Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday is that correct (for now)?

(Sorry I am still catching up and going through the thread)

Prepared, not scared!!
 
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