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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

tornado examiner said:
I don’t see a reason why saturday’s moisture would disappear. Other than, something not yet present.
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I think the only way moisture would be a problem for Saturday is if the preceding trough passes through much later than modeled.

And if it passes through much earlier than modeled, then that might allow more moisture for Friday.
 
GA Stormchaser said:
When do the models start ingesting land based and balloon data from these systems?
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When the system starts pass over land.

I think that is typically 3 days out from an event (for the SE anyway). Info gathered on Wednesday should be VERY telling. Right now we just watch people either become depressed or have panic attacks with each model run :)
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Honestly for some areas in Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday , moisture maybe a bit undermodeled.
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Just based off the GFS if you time it right with a low pressure moving through Memphis with the low pressure bombing out and winds being very strong from the south. Instability and moisture are going to be about as good as you'll get for a March event. But that's a best case scenario. Even in the bad scenario moisture isn't bad. It's just mesoscale features that determine severity. Screenshot_2025-03-10-21-04-20-07_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Just based off the GFS if you time it right with a low pressure moving through Memphis with the low pressure bombing out and winds being very strong from the south. Instability and moisture are going to be about as good as you'll get for a March event. But that's a best case scenario. Even in the bad scenario moisture isn't bad. It's just mesoscale features that determine severity. View attachment 34953
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yeaaah, Sat really has me concerned
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Just based off the GFS if you time it right with a low pressure moving through Memphis with the low pressure bombing out and winds being very strong from the south. Instability and moisture are going to be about as good as you'll get for a March event. But that's a best case scenario. Even in the bad scenario moisture isn't bad. It's just mesoscale features that determine severity. View attachment 34953
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What’s your analysis of the Euro?
 
Clancy said:
Still way too many questions to iron out to make solid assumptions, but supercells would likely be a possibility during the afternoon across parts of MS and AL, and perhaps GA. As night falls, we will probably see a consolidation into a broken QLCS, as is characteristic of Deep South events.
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yeah I do not remember a lot of “discrete” activity here in the time that I have been here.

Super cells seem to “merge” into a QLCS by the time they get to my neck of the woods…… consistently.
 
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