Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[slenker]

Thank goodness for that preceding wave. If that was not present, this would be a slam dunk for a very significant outbreak over a wide area, guaranteed.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

erp, here we go

 

[TheSuckZone]

View attachment 34949
erp, here we go

Caught this as well. Looked like maybe maintaining mid 60s dews as far north as Tennessee Saturday

 

[GA Stormchaser]

When do the models start ingesting land based and balloon data from these systems?

 

[tornado examiner]

View attachment 34949
erp, here we go

Model wise Saturday is looking more certain to me.

 

[Jason Mills]

When do the models start ingesting land based and balloon data from these systems?

Once the troughs move into the CONUS in the next couple of days, they’ll be sampled by a much denser network of balloons and ASOS stations. Even still, there are ships, buoys, aircraft, and GOES derived data that gives a decent idea of the mid and upper air conditions

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The severe weather could interfere with the lunar eclipse

 

[MMWX]

Moisture is certainly the big limiting factor Friday, but none of the models have shown a moisture issue for Saturday yet.

Saturday is still looking pretty dangerous

 

[Bulkshear]

Model wise Saturday is looking more certain to me.

If we get mid 60’s dews into TN there will be problems from TN/KY line south. I would also expect several issues with tornadoes with this set up. The question I have is will there be initiation of supercells ahead of the line or will this be more of a QLCS? If we get the discrete cells… watch out

 

[MoonBaby]

I always thought it was a low around Memphis that caused very bad weather in central Alabama? I mean Arkansas too but I remember him saying Memphis was “textbook”. Him being Spann

 

[Clancy]

If we get mid 60’s dews into TN there will be problems from TN/KY line south. I would also expect several issues with tornadoes with this set up. The question I have is will there be initiation of supercells ahead of the line or will this be more of a QLCS? If we get the discrete cells… watch out

Still way too many questions to iron out to make solid assumptions, but supercells would likely be a possibility during the afternoon across parts of MS and AL, and perhaps GA. As night falls, we will probably see a consolidation into a broken QLCS, as is characteristic of Deep South events.

 

[Bulkshear]

Moisture is certainly the big limiting factor Friday, but none of the models have shown a moisture issue for Saturday yet.

Saturday is still looking pretty dangerous

Thank goodness for that preceding wave. If that was not present, this would be a slam dunk for a very significant outbreak over a wide area, guaranteed.

I don’t think this will matter for Saturday unfortunately

 

[Bulkshear]

I always thought it was a low around Memphis that caused very bad weather in central Alabama? I mean Arkansas too but I remember him saying Memphis was “textbook”. Him being Spann

This is correct, he said exactly this

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Still way too many questions to iron out to make solid assumptions, but supercells would likely be a possibility during the afternoon across parts of MS and AL, and perhaps GA. As night falls, we will probably see a consolidation into a broken QLCS, as is characteristic of Deep South events.

yup, the shear would allow for sups for a rather long time frame before becoming a squall much later on, spc says this as well

 

[Clancy]

I always thought it was a low around Memphis that caused very bad weather in central Alabama? I mean Arkansas too but I remember him saying Memphis was “textbook”. Him being Spann

The Memphis Low is one of the varieties of low-latitude low pressure placements that are conducive to severe weather, but it can occur elsewhere. The key is the proximity overall of that low to the area of concern for convection.

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

I don’t think this will matter for Saturday unfortunately

I'm seeing the glass as half full that the mid south will still get in on the action!!

 

[Bulkshear]

I'm seeing the glass as half full that the mid south will still get in on the action!!

I wouldn’t view it that way. We really don’t want this to maximize its potential. This is potentially devastating if it happens. I’m like everyone else that enjoys weather, wanting to see a good storm or two, but I don’t want to see carnage

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The Memphis Low is one of the varieties of low-latitude low pressure placements that are conducive to severe weather, but it can occur elsewhere. The key is the proximity overall of that low to the area of concern for convection.

Yep, James spann always mentions when a sub 1000 mb low pressure system travels northeast through Memphis that's usually means we see some nasty weather in Alabama (usually our preferred placement for tornado outbreaks). And usually he's right.

 

[Bulkshear]

Yep, James spann always mentions when a sub 1000 mb low pressure system travels northeast through Memphis that's usually means we see some nasty weather in Alabama (usually our preferred placement for tornado outbreaks). And usually he's right.

The fact that Spann is being this cavalier, this might be a strong word to use, gives me great cause for pause due to his expertise with tornadoes

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

I wouldn’t view it that way. We really don’t want this to maximize its potential. This is potentially devastating if it happens. I’m like everyone else that enjoys weather, wanting to see a good storm or two, but I don’t want to see carnage

The earlier trough will probably save our area, but hoping more moisture can make it further north than currently depicted for a little action here.