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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

tornado examiner said:
Just the consistency of it all. But I said major downtrend. As in, the event turning into basically nothing but another wind bag.
Right now its looking like a tornado outbreak.
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Most severe weather models so far this year have significantly downtrended as they get closer and closer to the event.

Heck the event last week looked like a super outbreak in the D8/D7/D6 range and it ended up just being an ENH.

I'm not saying it will or won't downtrend, but it's too early to be saying that it won't downtrend at all.

When the cams start picking it up is where I think you can start to get a much clearer picture of what's going to happen.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Most severe weather models so far this year have significantly downtrended as they get closer and closer to the event.

Heck the event last week looked like a super outbreak in the D8/D7/D6 range and it ended up just being an ENH.

I'm not saying it will or won't downtrend, but it's too early to be saying that it won't downtrend at all.

When the cams start picking it up is where I think you can start to get a much clearer picture of what's going to happen.
Click to expand...
This system here don’t appear ha e the moisture issue compared last one
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Most severe weather models so far this year have significantly downtrended as they get closer and closer to the event.

Heck the event last week looked like a super outbreak in the D8/D7/D6 range and it ended up just being an ENH.

I'm not saying it will or won't downtrend, but it's too early to be saying that it won't downtrend at all.

When the cams start picking it up is where I think you can start to get a much clearer picture of what's going to happen.
Click to expand...
I agree with you, however I would say at face value this looks very ominous. Using the word outbreak is early before seeing the cams. Personally I don’t see it down trending but we will see
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Most severe weather models so far this year have significantly downtrended as they get closer and closer to the event.

Heck the event last week looked like a super outbreak in the D8/D7/D6 range and it ended up just being an ENH.

I'm not saying it will or won't downtrend, but it's too early to be saying that it won't downtrend at all.

When the cams start picking it up is where I think you can start to get a much clearer picture of what's going to happen.
Click to expand...

I still like to see what the models say once the system's ashore
 
Bulkshear said:
I agree with you, however I would say at face value this looks very ominous. Using the word outbreak is early before seeing the cams. Personally I don’t see it down trending but we will see
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I don't disagree with you at all. But I do think it's way too early to be making definitive statements about this event.

It has a high ceiling and looks ominious at this stage. Still plenty of time between now and Friday/Saturday.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
I don't disagree with you at all. But I do think it's way too early to be making definitive statements about this event.

It has a high ceiling and looks ominious at this stage. Still plenty of time between now and Friday/Saturday.
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UncleJuJu98 said:
April 27th 2011. This event will be nowhere near that caliber. But that event had a low pressure going through the Memphis area at either 989 or 990 form what I recall!
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Don’t put a pre mature ceiling on it. Very unlikely however I wouldn’t throw that statement out there with what just came off the newest model runs
 
Bulkshear said:
Don’t put a pre mature ceiling on it. Very unlikely however I wouldn’t throw that statement out there with what just came off the newest model runs
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Nah this event won't compare, lot more pieces that would need to come together. This event could be dangerous but you probably won't see another April 27th until about 2040-2050 I would guess.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Nah this event won't compare, lot more pieces that would need to come together. This event could be dangerous but you probably won't see another April 27th until about 2040-2050 I would guess.
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Well based off odds yes I agree. Problem is you could have a shorter turn around between events and then it could go 100 years hypothetically. There is a lot missing but this is a very dangerous set up
 
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