Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Clancy]

Yeah, 18Z holds serve and if anything makes the threat for the Southeast worse. Just some absurdness going on.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

18zgfs has me speechless

 

[JPWX]

This is the 18z GFS sounding for Monroe County, MS for Saturday.

 

[Bulkshear]

This is the 18z GFS sounding for Monroe County, MS for Saturday.

Umm

 

[Bulkshear]

18zgfs has me speechless

Me too… Wouldn’t this be a worst case scenario?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, 18Z holds serve and if anything makes the threat for the Southeast worse. Just some absurdness going on.
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That SBCape is almost definitely undermodeled some if this GFS run is true.

*I gotta calm myself after this GFS death run lol. My inner weather weenie came out

Holding this with grain of salt until more model consistently and other models get on board.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Me too… Wouldn’t this be a worst case scenario?

Without doubt

 

[tornado examiner]

Major downtrends that heavily nullify the ceiling are still possible but are they likely? I don’t think so….sadly

 

[MMWX]

This is the 18z GFS sounding for Monroe County, MS for Saturday.

Good time to be on spring break and away from Oktibbeha county/east MS.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Major downtrends that heavily nullify the ceiling are still possible but are they likely? I don’t think so….sadly

Just one model run currently, this solution needs more consistency before it's taken as gospel.

 

[MMWX]

Major downtrends that heavily nullify the ceiling are still possible but are they likely? I don’t think so….sadly

What are you seeing that says this won't downtrend?

 

[JPWX]

Good time to be on spring break and away from Oktibbeha county/east MS.

Indeed. That honestly might be a good thing too that most of the schools around here are out for Spring break

 

[MMWX]

Indeed. That honestly might be a good thing too that most of the schools around here are out for Spring break

Yup. Still need to be on high alert in Desoto County but this is setting up to be gnarly for East MS/AL based on the past couple of model runs.

 

[tornado examiner]

What are you seeing that says this won't downtrend?

Just the consistency of it all. But I said major downtrend. As in, the event turning into basically nothing but another wind bag.
Right now its looking like a tornado outbreak.

 

[ColdFront]

Just the consistency of it all. But I said major downtrend. As in, the event turning into basically nothing but another wind bag.
Right now its looking like a tornado outbreak.

I think you’re getting ahead of yourself….again

 

[JPWX]

Can anyone do a box sounding off the 12z Euro and 18z GFS? For MS and AL

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Rolling Fork.....

 

[tornado examiner]

I think you’re getting ahead of yourself….again

I guess I'm just not really smart as I thought I was in all this…ill leave forecasting to…anyone else….
I just say things but rarely know what I'm even talking about…

 

[andyhb]

18z GFS is arguably higher end on Saturday than it is on Friday.

 

[Clancy]

Indeed. That honestly might be a good thing too that most of the schools around here are out for Spring break

Reminded me of March 19, 2018, where JSU was on spring break, and that likely kept a lot of students from getting hurt by the EF-3 that struck Jacksonville that night.