Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[ColdFront]

I’ve never heard of this. I would actually like to know the answer to this question. Also just saying that this does seem to have a pretty high ceiling

I’ll reread Dr Corfidi’s paper and see

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z GFS is a big OOF for MS/AL wow.

Insane.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

18z GFS is a big OOF for MS/AL wow

Western half tn also bad Friday night

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Cape values creeping higher even on this run

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Western half tn also bad Friday night

Secondary low over Memphis. Screams bad for Alabama and Mississippi. Going to dive in on the model in a second

 

[ColdFront]

I’ll reread Dr Corfidi’s paper and see

“The Kansas surface low began to fill slightly as it tracked slowly northeastward to near Burlington, Iowa, by 0000 UTC Thursday, 4 April”

Above is from Corfidi’s paper.

So by around 7 PM EST the low was filling gradually as it tracked into Iowa. By that point though the majority of supercells had already fired and convective band two’s tornados were in central And southern KY, TN, and the Alabama event were underway.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Secondary low over Memphis. Screams bad for Alabama and Mississippi. Going to dive in on the model in a second

That would even back winds more over parts tn also

 

[Bulkshear]

Pretty interesting development with the secondary low and it gives recovery time!

 

[JPWX]

Secondary low over Memphis. Screams bad for Alabama and Mississippi. Going to dive in on the model in a second

I just saw that 2nd low. 994 to 989. Good Lord!

 

[Bulkshear]

I just saw that 2nd low. 994 to 989. Good Lord!

This would impact TN in a bad way as well as this lifts northward correct?

 

[JPWX]

This would impact TN in a bad way as well as this lifts northward correct?

It would

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I just saw that 2nd low. 994 to 989. Good Lord!

Gotta post these two shots. My gosh the supercell composite is incredibly high. That secondary low is not good for Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This would impact TN in a bad way as well as this lifts northward correct?

Bad bad

 

[Bulkshear]

“The Kansas surface low began to fill slightly as it tracked slowly northeastward to near Burlington, Iowa, by 0000 UTC Thursday, 4 April”

Above is from Corfidi’s paper.

So by around 7 PM EST the low was filling gradually as it tracked into Iowa. By that point though the majority of supercells had already fired and convective band two’s tornados were in central And southern KY, TN, and the Alabama event were underway.

This looks like it develops a secondary low so this won’t matter

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

If the euro picks this up. Good lord !

 

[Bulkshear]

That would even back winds more over parts tn also

Yes… This would have outbreak all over it if it plays out

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol, this is one model run, but man that took a unexpected turn to me, you really don't want a secondary low taking that path if you live in Mississippi or Alabama.

 

[Bulkshear]

If the euro picks this up. Good lord !

I’m curious. I pointed this out to Fred a couple days ago. The GFS was showing this as a solution. I don’t know if Fred’s opinion would now change, especially if the euro jumps on board.

 

[Bulkshear]

Lol, this is one model run, but man that took an unexpected turn to me, you really don't want a secondary low taking that path if you live in Mississippi or Alabama.

Or up in TN either

 

[ColdFront]

This looks like it develops a secondary low so this won’t matter

Correct for Saturday, but not necessarily for Friday.