• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

tennessee storm chaser said:
wonder how and if that would have a effect on the severe weather potential ….. less convection means no messy storm mode ?
Click to expand...
I think Mississippi and West is supposed to be less messy, just looking off the euro Alabama is dealing with A broken line of supercells, but it's way too early to nail specifics like this. I think confidence has increased though that a potentially dangerous 2 day severe/tornado outbreak is POSSIBLE for areas in the SPC outline (although I do feel it's too early to mention outbreak lol, I think a two day high impact event is possible; is the better message currently)
 
Last edited:
akt1985 said:
I don’t know if a potential high-end system happening on the weekend affects how seriously the general public takes a forecast like that. At least for weather enthusiasts, a Saturday system would mean many of us are off work and can spend all day tracking or chasing a storm system like this.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, the general public will likely pay LESS attention because most people have plans on the weekend and the weather is the last thing on their minds. I would like to say Alabama has learned its lesson with that, but it's been years since we've had a major outbreak that covers a wide area and many have become complacent. Not all - I know the ones with storm anxiety will watch it closely - but I'm worried many just won't be bothered to care. And if we have widespread power outages to accompany that...oof.
 
MichelleH said:
Unfortunately, the general public will likely pay LESS attention because most people have plans on the weekend and the weather is the last thing on their minds. I would like to say Alabama has learned its lesson with that, but it's been years since we've had a major outbreak that covers a wide area and many have become complacent. Not all - I know the ones with storm anxiety will watch it closely - but I'm worried many just won't be bothered to care. And if we have widespread power outages to accompany that...oof.age
Click to expand...
Was just thinking to myself , the 12zgfs runs shortly …. Time change will make models run hour later lol. Starting today
 
I don't know what the12z GFS will show, but the 6z looks like an isolated outbreak on Friday in the Midwest but a much more substantial outbreak in Dixie on Saturday. This sounding is a BOX sounding covering most of Mississippi and parts of eastern Louisiana Saturday afternoon. What stands out to me (as a stats guy) is the SARS sounding analogs -- 23 loose matches and over 60% are tornado-producing occurrences. The hodo is also very curved, very high SRH, very high EHI, and moisture seems to not be a problem in the Deep South like in the Midwest (over an inch and a half of PW on this sounding). The STP box plot squarely puts EF4+ in play. Dangerous sounding if this were to verify.



1741533641710.png
 
ICON 12z is another concerning solution, especially for the AR into TN/MS corridor. Much more compact trough than other models and improved moisture return in comparison to 12z.

1741534859615.png1741534876146.png

Certainly, the building blocks for a genuinely high end severe weather scenario are there. Considering its still D6/7 range, I don't want to jump the gun too much especially learning from the last system. But does really need watching, evidently.
 
wx_guy said:
I don't know what the12z GFS will show, but the 6z looks like an isolated outbreak on Friday in the Midwest but a much more substantial outbreak in Dixie on Saturday. This sounding is a BOX sounding covering most of Mississippi and parts of eastern Louisiana Saturday afternoon. What stands out to me (as a stats guy) is the SARS sounding analogs -- 23 loose matches and over 60% are tornado-producing occurrences. The hodo is also very curved, very high SRH, very high EHI, and moisture seems to not be a problem in the Deep South like in the Midwest (over an inch and a half of PW on this sounding). The STP box plot squarely puts EF4+ in play. Dangerous sounding if this were to verify.



View attachment 34789
Click to expand...
I think my biggest worry is having a surface boundary being laid down for storms to ride on and just south of it. (Not relating to 4/27/11) I think April 12 2020 was kinda a situation like that with having all the messy convection into Tennessee Kentucky and extreme Northern Mississippi if I remember correctly.
 
Brice W said:
I think my biggest worry is having a surface boundary being laid down for storms to ride on and just south of it. (Not relating to 4/27/11) I think April 12 2020 was kinda a situation like that with having all the messy convection into Tennessee Kentucky and extreme Northern Mississippi if I remember correctly.
Click to expand...
This appears to be little different
 
This is a sounding near west blocton Alabama On Saturday. talk about bonkers. Get about 1000j more of sbcape and your getting one of the better soundings I've seen in West Alabama. (This sounding may actually be a little bit contaminated , I can't tell)


*Seems like each run is becoming. A better parameter space for the Mississippi/ Alabama mini tornado alley lol

2025030912_GFS_153_32.7,-87.87_winter_mu.png
 
Last edited:
UncleJuJu98 said:
This is a sounding near west blocton Alabama On Saturday. talk about bonkers. Get about 1000j more of sbcape and you’re getting one of the better soundings I've seen in West Alabama. (This sounding may actually be a little bit contaminated , I can't tell)
Click to expand...
Seems like we are heading to a mainly discrete event out ahead a strong squall line
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top