AJS
Member
The two images at the top are pretty impressive though.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
The two images at the top are pretty impressive though.
I was only seeing 500-1000 on the SPC's mesoanalysis throughout the day. Especially in Alabama. Mississippi was showing closer to 2000 early on. Where were you seeing 4000? That'd be really surprising if true.
There’s different kinds of Cape. Were you looking at SB, ML, or MU?
jiharris0220
Member
I was looking at surfaced based cape, the 4000j/kg occurred in very isolated spots in southern Louisiana.
The majority of the warm sector had cape values above 2000 and 3000j/kg.
AJS
Member
Some of the damage from the Alabama tornadoes so far has been pretty significant.
MU and SB mainly, but I didn't see any of it get that high.
In Alabama?
Mississippi almost hit 3K , this is from an observed sounding from Jacksonville
Here's what the SPC was showing for 4pm, 7pm, and 11pm CST respectively.
Tanner
Member
I have to hard disagree with that statement. There is clearly some debarking visible in that first photo, and decent contextual damage in other areas. Besides, from my experience it's hard to tell from an aerial perspective the degree of debarking in some cases. This looks every bit as violent as any other low-end EF4 I've seen before.
By 4 PM the atmosphere was beginning to be worked over in Mississippi, we are talking about as the event kicked off and was at it’s apex
@Grand Poo Bah I need you to understand, violent tornados can occur and maintain themselves in lower cape regimes. Dont believe me? Here is a RAP proximity sounding of the Mayfield tornado which has the longest verified track in history. That is barely over 1000 k/j of cape
I can hit you with a list a mile long of this happening.
I can hit you with a list a mile long of this happening.
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Well I wasn't aware this tool existed until 4pm when you sent it to me . I was using the HRRR up to that point. I wonder if there's any way to go back and find the morning maps.
jiharris0220
Member
Maybe, a bit hard to tell if that tree is debarked or if we’re just seeing areas where the branches have been torn off and took some of the bark with it.
I’ll trust that the damage surveys will find the answers soon enough.
Yes, I know about the Mayfield tornado. That was also in December and is an extreme exception. Like I said, I know it CAN happen, but I believe, statistically it's far less likely. That is absolutely not to say life changing outbreaks can't happen without it. I'm just talking about exceptionally violent. Long track tornadoes.
Mayfield really is fascinating though. Some people believe it was the longest tornado track ever and the NWS's call about when it lifted was questionable. It wasn't just long tracked, it was on the ground for an eternity.
No it’s not rare and it’s not an extreme exception. Rolling Fork wasn’t in a high cape regime. This isn’t even up for debate and I’m not sure why I’m continuing this now. You can continue to insist on this, or you can take this and learn from it. A few of us on here, and even meteorologists such as Andy, have tried to get this point across to you. Violent, long track tornados, don’t require high cape values. It helps, but it’s not necessary in cases.
You seem to have a case of the know it alls that you have exhibited multiple times since you’ve been here. I’ve tried to be helpful, but for someone that didn’t even know the SPC mesoscale analysis page existed, you would do well to try and learn some more because I’m only trying to show you.
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lake.effect
Member
3 tornado warnings just popped off in PA
Ok not trying to argue. We can definitely drop it.
Edit: I literally was just presenting a theory and intentionally left it open for scrutiny and feedback.
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Ledian
Member
Interesting rotation east of Clearfield
AJS
Member
I actually wonder just how long track the Mayfield tornado really was. I think it was on the ground for a bit longer than they thought.
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