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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

jiharris0220 said:
The cape was more than enough yesterday, it was ranging 2000 to 4000j/kg.

Palm Sunday had cape below 2000j/kg and 18 F4s occurred.
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I was only seeing 500-1000 on the SPC's mesoanalysis throughout the day. Especially in Alabama. Mississippi was showing closer to 2000 early on. Where were you seeing 4000? That'd be really surprising if true.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I was only seeing 500-1000 on the SPC's mesoanalysis throughout the day. Especially in Alabama. Mississippi was showing closer to 2000 early on. Where were you seeing 4000? That'd be really surprising if true.
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I was looking at surfaced based cape, the 4000j/kg occurred in very isolated spots in southern Louisiana.

The majority of the warm sector had cape values above 2000 and 3000j/kg.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Other than that one brick home, I’m not really seeing the violent damage with Bakersfield. Everyelse along its path so far looks more borderline.

The structures pictured here and in the Facebook video looks of piss poor construction, and I see no visible debarking of trees.
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I have to hard disagree with that statement. There is clearly some debarking visible in that first photo, and decent contextual damage in other areas. Besides, from my experience it's hard to tell from an aerial perspective the degree of debarking in some cases. This looks every bit as violent as any other low-end EF4 I've seen before.
 
@Grand Poo Bah I need you to understand, violent tornados can occur and maintain themselves in lower cape regimes. Dont believe me? Here is a RAP proximity sounding of the Mayfield tornado which has the longest verified track in history. That is barely over 1000 k/j of cape

1742148615768.png

I can hit you with a list a mile long of this happening.
 
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ColdFront said:
By 4 PM the atmosphere was beginning to be worked over in Mississippi, we are talking about as the event kicked off and was at it’s apex
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Well I wasn't aware this tool existed until 4pm when you sent it to me . I was using the HRRR up to that point. I wonder if there's any way to go back and find the morning maps.
 
Tanner said:
I have to hard disagree with that statement. There is clearly some debarking visible in that first photo, and decent contextual damage in other areas. Besides, from my experience it's hard to tell from an aerial perspective the degree of debarking in some cases. This looks every bit as violent as any other low-end EF4 I've seen before.
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Maybe, a bit hard to tell if that tree is debarked or if we’re just seeing areas where the branches have been torn off and took some of the bark with it.

I’ll trust that the damage surveys will find the answers soon enough.
 
ColdFront said:
@Grand Poo Bah I need you to understand, violent tornados can occur and maintain themselves in lower cape regimes. Dont believe me? Here is a RAP proximity sounding of the Mayfield tornado which has the longest verified track in history. That is barely over 1000 k/j of cape

View attachment 36512
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Yes, I know about the Mayfield tornado. That was also in December and is an extreme exception. Like I said, I know it CAN happen, but I believe, statistically it's far less likely. That is absolutely not to say life changing outbreaks can't happen without it. I'm just talking about exceptionally violent. Long track tornadoes.

Mayfield really is fascinating though. Some people believe it was the longest tornado track ever and the NWS's call about when it lifted was questionable. It wasn't just long tracked, it was on the ground for an eternity.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Yes, I know about the Mayfield tornado. That was also in December and is an extreme exception. Like I said, I know it CAN happen, but I believe, statistically it's far less likely. That is absolutely not to say life changing outbreaks can't happen without it. I'm just talking about exceptionally violent. Long track tornadoes.

Mayfield really is fascinating though. Some people believe it was the longest tornado track ever and the NWS's call about when it lifted was questionable. It wasn't just long tracked, it was on the ground for an eternity.
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No it’s not rare and it’s not an extreme exception. Rolling Fork wasn’t in a high cape regime. This isn’t even up for debate and I’m not sure why I’m continuing this now. You can continue to insist on this, or you can take this and learn from it. A few of us on here, and even meteorologists such as Andy, have tried to get this point across to you. Violent, long track tornados, don’t require high cape values. It helps, but it’s not necessary in cases.

You seem to have a case of the know it alls that you have exhibited multiple times since you’ve been here. I’ve tried to be helpful, but for someone that didn’t even know the SPC mesoscale analysis page existed, you would do well to try and learn some more because I’m only trying to show you.
 
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ColdFront said:
No it’s not rare and it’s not an extreme exception. Rolling Fork wasn’t in a high cape regime. This isn’t even up for debate and I’m not sure why I’m continuing this now. You can continue to insist on this, or you can take this and learn from it. A few of us on here, and even meteorologists such as Andy, have tried to get this point across to you.
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Ok not trying to argue. We can definitely drop it.

Edit: I literally was just presenting a theory and intentionally left it open for scrutiny and feedback.
 
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ColdFront said:
@Grand Poo Bah I need you to understand, violent tornados can occur and maintain themselves in lower cape regimes. Dont believe me? Here is a RAP proximity sounding of the Mayfield tornado which has the longest verified track in history. That is barely over 1000 k/j of cape

View attachment 36512

I can hit you with a list a mile long of this happening.
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I actually wonder just how long track the Mayfield tornado really was. I think it was on the ground for a bit longer than they thought.
 
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