Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[UncleJuJu98]

I know we are in the nowcasting mode. But those storms I highlighted earlier. The HRRR shows those being trouble makers. The danger is not over yet.

 

[KevinH]

Let me just say I want to personally thank the moderators for configuring the forum so the B-word is automatically replaced with "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency".

And as the Gordo tornado shows, in a setup like this significant to intense tornadoes can come out of literally nowhere. Do we have one final surprise coming?

Same… also to the mods:


If we could SERIOUSLY add an “eye roll” reaction that would be greatly appreciated. We could use that instead of replying to certain…. “noisy” comments that we have seen There’s been a lot and they make it difficult to read (find?) the MOST IMPORTANT info. It can be our way of telling someone we don’t like what the person said without creating extra posts. Imagine saying something and you see 20 people “roll their eyes” at you hahahahahhahaahaha

We don’t need to see the same TORE, WW, MD posted 20 times when they are issued lol

Eye roll reaction! PLEASE! Lol

@WesL @MichelleH @JayF @KoD (and whoever else I forgot to tag lol)

 

[buckeye05]

Just now catching up. Here’s my takeaway so far:

-There was indeed something to the last minute shift toward a messier storm mode discussed by Trey and others this morning, especially for Alabama.

-Multiple violent tornadoes have still touched down despite this.

-Comparison to an Easter 2020 tier event is totally fair, which is bad enough. However, the cleaner, full-fledged open warm sector supercell swarm “super outbreak” scenario that many people were freaked out over hasn’t panned out so far.

There’s validity to both points in terms of the last minute changes that DID have an impact on the overall convective evolution and the ceiling of the event, and the fact that it has still very much been a violent Dixie Alley outbreak regardless. No need to get cranky. Just look at things objectively and be chill.

 

[tornado examiner]

The deadly Poplar bluff Missouri tornado is rated EF3 with winds of 138mph

 

[Tennie]

ABC 33/40 is showing damage on their news stream right now.

 

[slenker]

My fear is people who aren't weather aware like we are will see this event as a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and not pay attention to the next event and have massive loss of life because of cry wolf syndrome.

It’s totally understandable to think this. This is something I’m all too familiar with here in Ohio - just last year we had a big moderate risk over the whole state and it ended up not panning out to be what was forecasted. All the people I told about nasty weather came up to me and said many things, including things similar to “meteorologists are paid to be wrong” and stupid stuff like that. There isn’t a whole lot we can do about it because the weather will do what it wants to regardless of what we think. At the end of the day, we can warn and warn people about the potential of a violent outbreak, and ultimately it comes down to the individual on whether or not they want to listen or heed warnings.

 

[Kds86z]

I know we are in the nowcasting mode. But those storms I highlighted earlier. The HRRR shows those being trouble makers. The danger is not over yet.

What storms?

 

[Equus]

The nuance of forecasting high end events and the ten billion things that can either mess up expectations or spawn a violent tornado in a marginal environment is frustrating, but also one of the things that fascinates me the very most about severe forecasting. Can't wait to dive into the post-mortems and figure out why the things that happened happened, and the things that didn't, didnt

 

[Bama Ravens]

I honestly never would have believed it if you had told me that by 6:00 PM CDT there wouldn’t be a single tornado warning left in Alabama. I’m not complaining, though! I’m glad this thing has underperformed (relatively speaking) in Alabama.

 

[Justin Hindman]

It’s totally understandable to think this. This is something I’m all too familiar with here in Ohio - just last year we had a big moderate risk over the whole state and it ended up not panning out to be what was forecasted. All the people I told about nasty weather came up to me and said many things, including things similar to “meteorologists are paid to be wrong” and stupid stuff like that. There isn’t a whole lot we can do about it because the weather will do what it wants to regardless of what we think. At the end of the day, we can warn and warn people about the potential of a violent outbreak, and ultimately it comes down to the individual on whether or not they want to listen or heed warnings.

That moderate risk for Ohio was awful. I stayed chasing in Kentucky that day bc the temps were in 50s and the hrr showed just rain all day for there, worse outlook I can remember

 

[UncleJuJu98]

What storms?

 

[KevinH]

The deadly Poplar bluff Missouri tornado is rated EF3 with winds of 138mph

Way to stay on topic LOL!!!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Impressive couplet near Laurel MS

 

[Justin Hindman]

One thing I’ve noticed today is the storm motions aren’t moving as fast as forecasted. I thought they would be moving around 60 today, it’s been about 45 bc I caught to the storms and now 15 miles ahead of them

 

[tornado examiner]

Way to stay on topic LOL!!!

When we’re in a break from the activity is it still not okay to inform those about new info on previous tornadoes?

 

[Argus]

Moved every important vehicle at work under a roof, in case the SPC 5% hail chance overperforms. Do we have anything to watch in South Alabama to come this way?

 

[aujerm]

Thus far I think Easter 2020 (which, notably, is one of the largest tornado outbreaks behind 3/31 and the Supers) is a very good comparison, and these tornadoes in Alabama are almost certainly taking advantage of boundaries. Nevertheless, we've many hours to go and I expect we are far from done.

how are things looking for Georgia?

 

[AJS]

Definitely a concerning cell. Strengthening and kind of out there on it’s own.

 

[Clancy]

Moved every important vehicle at work under a roof, in case the SPC 5% hail chance overperforms. Do we have anything to watch in South Alabama to come this way?

Honestly I would recommend that but for the winds, not hail. Limb-fall-off-tree is a real concern, even before the storms get here, considering the non-thunderstorm winds.

 

[Clancy]

how are things looking for Georgia?

Still very much warranting close monitoring. FFC especially concerned about the chance of destructive thunderstorm winds in NW GA as storms move in. Tornado risk remains par for the course - a substantial risk for tornadoes, including strong ones.