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Severe Weather Threat 3/13-3/15/2024

View attachment 24325

High end tornado sounding from the 00z ILN RAOB.

I'm starting to learn more and more that low-level shear is really, really important in significant tornado events. Back to the west, where the 10% hatched area was, I was a little less confident due to a lot of straight-line hodographs on the HRRR soundings I picked. Sure enough, nothing nearly as impactful has unfolded over there. Certainly you can get situations where thermodynamics compensate, but they seem to be rarer than I used to think.
 
Not sure where in Delaware this is, but the lightning is non stop.

 
Logan County, OH emergency officials declaring a mass-casualty event. Hearing unconfirmed reports a trailer or RV park was hit by this storm.
 
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