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Severe Weather Threat 3/13-3/15/2024

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AND FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142036Z - 142230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY
IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF IN AND WESTERN OH. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IL MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO IN AND OH/MI, THOUGH
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AND A
NEW WW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ACROSS PARTS OF IN AND OH THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF
AN EARLY DAY MCS IS RAPIDLY RECOVERING. WITH AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 70S F WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F. SEVERAL MODIFIED
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT SUPPORTING AMPLE
MESOSCALE LIFT FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS DEVELOPED
WITH 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORM ORGANIZATION (SHOULD
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE) INTO SUPERCELLS OR SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS IS
PROBABLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C AND THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL (ESPECIALLY WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS),
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE TIMING OF ROBUST
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MODEST GIVEN THE AIR MASS RESIDES IN THE COLD
POOL OF THE EARLIER MCS. STABLE WAVE CLOUDS AND THE RELATIVELY
LIMITED DEPTH OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF IN, WHILE
MORE ROBUST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS CONFINED TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS/MODIFIED OUTFLOW. FORECASTER EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS STORMS
MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED INITIALLY WITH BROAD, ALBEIT
WEAK, SYNOPTIC DECENT LIKELY ONGOING BEHIND THE FORMER MCS. STILL,
NUMEROUS CAM SOLUTIONS AND ONGOING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN
MO AND IL SUGGESTS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. STRONGER, MORE
ESTABLISHED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MO MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXPANDING HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY THIS
EVENING, THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS.

WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION IN MIND, CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH OF PORTIONS OF IN AND WESTERN
OH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..LYONS/GOSS.. 03/14/2024
Click to expand...

1710448997506.png
 
that was fast. tor watch out for IN and west OH.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 415 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA, AND SPREADING INTO
WESTERN OHIO THEREAFTER. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
Click to expand...
 
PDS tornado warning for the Waterloo, IL, area!

657
WWUS53 KLSX 142134
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
434 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILC133-142200-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-240314T2200Z/
Monroe IL-
434 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MONROE COUNTY...

At 434 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Valmeyer, moving east at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Waterloo and New Design around 440 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9004 3819 9027 3823 9030 3828 9029
3841 9015 3832 9004 3822 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 255DEG 26KT 3823 9023

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Glass
Click to expand...
 
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