Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 23rd - 25th March 2019 (1 Viewer)


JayF

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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Early in the period, a weakening, negative-tilt mid-level trough
will migrate northward across the central Plains away from a
gradually moistening warm sector and dryline across portions of
Texas and Oklahoma. By D5/Sun, another wave will migrate eastward
from the Four Corners, reaching Oklahoma/Kansas by D6/Mon and the
Mid-South by D7/Tue. Subtle differences exist in the amplitude of
this trough and attendant strength of mid-level wind fields on
D6/Mon and these differences become substantial beyond that point.
However, the general consensus is that this mid-level flow will
favorably intersect a surface dryline located across western
Oklahoma and west-central Texas D5/Sun afternoon in concert with
modest deepening of a surface low and continued boundary layer
moistening. Low 60s F dewpoints should extend perhaps as far north
as central/northern Oklahoma. Supercellular wind profiles will
become common in the warm sector, and weak to moderate buoyancy will
likely foster thunderstorm development initially along the dryline -
spreading eastward with time. All modes of severe weather will be
possible, with the highest threat likely confined to the 15%
probability area. Some spatial refinements are likely with this
area in later outlook updates.

This threat should shift eastward over time in concert with eastward
progression of the surface low and continued low-level
moistening/destabilization ahead of that low across the Lower
Mississippi Valley on D6/Mon. Again, substantial differences in
model guidance appear by this time and lower confidence in any
particular corridors of heightened severe weather risk at this time.
 

Argus

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FFC isn't bullish about anything for us from system this yet. From their AFD this morning.


Will see increase
in clouds and at least a slight chance for precipitation creeping in
from the northwest by Sunday night, however main impacts will be
Monday/Tuesday as the main short wave and cold front sweep through.
Instability and shear are not looking all that impressive with this
system, but certainly not zero. Will need to keep an eye on model
trends as this system approaches.
 
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Not feeling this one too much. Looks like there will be some hail and that's about it. It's definitely not suggesting a major outbreak by any stretch right now. Not that it's a bad thing - an underperformer is definitely better than a day with 23 deaths.
 

JayF

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
341 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARTLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 340 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTH OF ADRIAN, OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VEGA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
 

JayF

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11 Tornado Warnings were issued in Texas and Colorado yesterday.
 

Argus

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Athens, Georgia
FFC starting to jump on the idea of hail for the ATL tomorrow.

Latest guidance still indicate that strong to severe hail event
on tap for Monday late afternoon and evening. As mentioned
previously, steep lapse rates with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg
and strong deep vertical wind shear all coming together, best
combination of shear and instability over westcentral GA and ATL
metro areas. Hail up to or even larger than 2 inches expected.

Can`t rule out some brief quasi-linear storms and multicells, but
expecting to see mostly cells and supercells with weak rotation.
A little concerned that 12Z HREF (high res ensemble forecast from
SPC) shows some decent updraft helicity potential in and near ATL
metro 21Z-00Z. Can`t rule out brief/weak tornado in spite of very
weak low level vertical wind shear. Storms should move out and/or
dissipate by 10PM
 

Lori

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Jay, do you want to add today’s date to the topic title?
 

Daryl

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Boaz,AL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
902 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Primary threats for potential severe weather this
afternoon will be hail, some severe with 1" in diameter, gusty winds
over 50-60 mph, and frequent lightning. The hail threat is largely
dependent on whether or not convection will be isolated enough so
that updrafts may mature to the point of producing larger hail.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
902 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Primary threats for potential severe weather this
afternoon will be hail, some severe with 1" in diameter, gusty winds
over 50-60 mph, and frequent lightning. The hail threat is largely
dependent on whether or not convection will be isolated enough
so
that updrafts may mature to the point of producing larger hail.
Looks like this will be the case.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Nice clearing is taking place across central Alabama at this moment. Temperatures are rising into the low 70s pretty quickly. Temperature went from 64 to 70 in the last 30 minutes here in Wedowee.
 

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