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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I am feeling a lack of confidence as the result of Mother Nature's karma. But have to own up to it.
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You shouldn’t. This is exactly like 3/15. Still tornadoes, but the outcome is still a muted, sloppier version of the event that isn’t representative of the ceiling of potential. This is playing out exactly the way I expected it to: A handful of significant tornadoes, but not the high-end violent potentially historic outbreak that was modeled during the lead up.
 
buckeye05 said:
You shouldn’t. This is exactly like 3/15. Still tornadoes, but the outcome is still a muted, sloppier version of the event that isn’t representative of the ceiling of potential. This is playing out exactly the way I expected it to: A handful of significant tornadoes, but not the high-end violent potentially historic outbreak that was modeled during the lead up.
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Yea, not sure why some on here are calling everyone morons when nothing has changed.
The lowest end solution has just barely been met with the at least 2-4 sig tors.
 
buckeye05 said:
You shouldn’t. This is exactly like 3/15. Still tornadoes, but the outcome is still a muted, sloppier version of the event that isn’t representative of the ceiling of potential. This is playing out exactly the way I expected it to: A handful of significant tornadoes, but not the high-end violent potentially historic outbreak that was modeled during the lead up.
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Oh, not that, just feels unfair to call a bust on the most certain event I could've called it on only for it to backfire on me like a moron. Between fearmongering tornado intensity yesterday and now this, all I can do is just laugh. Forecasting can be rough.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Yea, not sure why some on here are calling everyone morons when nothing has changed.
The lowest end solution has just barely been met with the at least 2-4 sig tors.
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buckeye05 said:
You shouldn’t. This is exactly like 3/15. Still tornadoes, but the outcome is still a muted, sloppier version of the event that isn’t representative of the ceiling of potential. This is playing out exactly the way I expected it to: A handful of significant tornadoes, but not the high-end violent potentially historic outbreak that was modeled during the lead up.
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The event hasn’t finished yet
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I am really passionate for forecasting and to have it go wrong on both sides of downplaying and overplaying feels really unlucky. There will be better days though and verifications, just got it wrong today
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The best thing to do would be to take it as a learning experience. Just try to make sure that the lessons you learn are the right ones and not the wrong ones. :)
 
jiharris0220 said:
Yea, not sure why some on here are calling everyone morons when nothing has changed.
The lowest end solution has just barely been met with the at least 2-4 sig tors.
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Lesson one is learning to take last minute downtrends at face value. Lesson two is not acting like the inevitable couple of significant tornadoes that still always end up occurring despite the violent outbreak scenario not verifying is somehow a full redemption of the event.

People fail to grasp that second concept as soon as the first CC drop appears on radar.
 
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