Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[kcyalater]

i don’t like the string of pearls loading up along i72. that’s a really ominous look.

 

[jiharris0220]

@jiharris0220 do you have any thoughts on this storm mode? Bulk shear looks very strong and very perpendicular. It's going to keep these storms from merging, right?

Yes, a discrete mode will be the main story for today.
As for this set up, particularly near the thermal boundary, I can easily see a scenario where storms fail to become surface based, (due to the surface inversion).
As for the dry line convection, these will slowly move into better sheer, the question is will they sustain themselves for long enough to do so.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This definitely doesn't look like the Blobby MCS that was modelled. I don't like the look of these cells at all.

View attachment 53540

View attachment 53542

This Springfield storm is the most concerning to me right now. These cloud tops are bursting past 60k feet all over the place, and the models didn't show hardly anything breaking 55k feet.

Meh...they're p***ing outflow on each other. TORR a likely "sherrifnado," or brief if not. Cells back in MO, well west of the 15%+CIG2, may have a better chance.

 

[Jbop]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Yes, a discrete mode will be the main story for today.
As for this set up, particularly near the thermal boundary, I can easily see a scenario where storms fail to become surface based, (due to the surface inversion).
As for the dry line convection, these will slowly move into better sheer, the question is will they sustain themselves for long enough to do so.

Mesoscale analysis says the LCL is in the 500-900 meter range on the Illinois storms. I'm surprised how much dry air they're surrounded by.

 

[jiharris0220]

Meh...they're p***ing outflow on each other. TORR a likely "sherrifnado," or brief if not. Cells back in MO, well west of the 15%+CIG2, may have a better chance.

Yea, the boundary riders are outflow dominant despite extreme sheer and high forward momentum. (A beaming sign that they are practically gliding on a slab of cool stable air right near the surface and are not surface based.)
They will have to bunker right (move more southeast to really get going).
The cells near Missouri are in directional sheer vectors, however they are by far in the best parameter space taking all parameters into account, if they gain enough forward momentum, (>45knots) they could go off.

 

[TornadoFan]

Meaning????

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Springfield storm just developed a crazy tight hail core. It's latching onto the 600 SRH

 

[jiharris0220]

Meaning????

Almost off the chart sheer, 99% streamwiseness too. If these boundary riders can become surface based and bunker right, long track tornado are likely.

 

[TornadoFan]

Almost off the chart sheer, 99% streamwiseness too. If these boundary riders can become surface based and bunker right, long track tornado are likely.

Thank you. I don't know how to read these, so I appreciate the help.

 

[Maxis_s]

Significant tornado on the ground in Iowa, crossing into Wisconsin soon!

 

[Xyls]

Tornado on the ground in NE Iowa. Likely going to become large.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

Iowa storm right now.

 

[jiharris0220]

Significant tornado on the ground in Iowa, crossing into Wisconsin soon!

Yep, supercell looks textbook too. Guess I shouldn’t be surprised though.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Yep, supercell looks textbook too. Guess I shouldn’t be surprised though.View attachment 53549

Oh nice, the "go here" map would have put you right on that one

 

[Tennie]

The Iowa storm has an NROT reading of over 2.00!

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

That storm near Decatur, IL is diving SE. Might produce soon

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Almost off the chart sheer, 99% streamwiseness too. If these boundary riders can become surface based and bunker right, long track tornado are likely.

It's turning. HARD. 79 DBZ hail core too. That's insane.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Decatur cell looks to be getting better organized, might see it try something