Man, got dropped from the ENH/MDT risk, all the way to a slight risk. What a 24 hour change. Was worried about getting 80+ MPH winds and tornadoes yesterday around this time, now I might just get some nice thunder lol Woke up in the 10% CIG2 TOR hatched, now I'm in the 2% unhatched. Feels bad man.
"...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon into
tonight, with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana.
Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging
wind-driven large hail will all be possible.
...20z Update...
An extremely complicated forecast scenario will continue this
afternoon in the wake of a persistent morning convective cluster. An
anomalously strong upper trough and jet are still forecast to move
over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon and
evening. This will support renewed convective development near the
trailing outflow from the morning cluster over the Midwest and along
the synoptic cold front from northeast MO into parts of KS and far
northern OK.
Rapid modification of the air mass along and north of the trailing
outflow boundary/effective warm front still appears plausible given
1-2 mb/hr pressure falls, ongoing low-level moisture advection and
strong heating ahead of the deepening surface cyclone. A focused
mesoscale corridor of strong to intense tornado potential remains
evident from east of St Louis, MO, across south-central IL and into
west-central IN, where RAP soundings show 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and exceptionally strong low and mid-level shear with ESRH upwards
of 400-600 m2/s2. The primary uncertainty remains the development
and maintenance of supercells in the wake of the MCS. CAM guidance
remains insistent on a few intense supercells organizing in this
corridor from late afternoon into the evening with a risk for strong
tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The threat may persist
into portions of eastern IN, KY and western OH tonight.
Across central MO into KS and OK, a very unstable and moderately
sheared air mass (18z TOP/SGF RAOBS) will promote rapid supercell
development in the next couple of hours along and ahead of the
sagging cold front. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible. As large-scale forcing for ascent moves away
this evening, storm coverage should slowly diminish, though the more
intense supercells may linger well into the evening with an all
hazards risk.
Primary changes to the outlook were to remove northern portions of
the ENH and MDT risk areas where substantial air mass recovery is
unlikely. Wind probabilities were increased on the southern end near
the OH River to account for clustering of expected upstream
development.
Elsewhere, minor changes were made to trim probabilities behind the
cold front. See the previous discussion for additional information.
..Lyons.. 06/17/2026"
