Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[Maxis_s]

View attachment 53524

Well that wasn't the original risk area. Damn.

 

[eep]

The Quad Cities moreso is clearing out pretty fast, but this is moving eastward a bit.

That is what I was referring to, most of the MCS region is now stratiform rain so once that gets wiped we'll probably start to see the real event initiate.

 

[eep]

Well that wasn't the original risk area. Damn.

Once the clearing punches east the threat will likely move along with it.

 

[Muwx]

Wonder if we'll get a PDS watch.

Highly unlikely IMO

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Northeast IA is a bit intriguing based on Nadocast.

...and SPC just issued a SVR watch for that area.

 

[jiharris0220]

Thermal boundary is blatantly obvious looking at surface analysis, if you can get a supercell to ride along this, easy long tracker potential.

 

[RFD66]

Yes I agree that we have hours for airmass recovery. I wonder what the sounding comparison of April 27 2011 in Alabama to todays morning sounding. Remember that morning had multiple tornadoes associated with it. Much stronger than what is going through Illinois right now and still produced one heck of a tornado outbreak that afternoon. I am not comparing the two but would be interested in seeing the data. I wish I had time to go do it.

KBMX 7:00 A.M. April 27, 2011

 

[Jbop]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Xyls]

Not sure why the moderate risk is encompassing Indiana so much? I think this event looks like it is going to really be centered on Illinois now that we are getting closer?

 

[US_Highway15]

Not sure why the moderate risk is encompassing Indiana so much? I think this event looks like it is going to really be centered on Illinois now that we are getting closer?

West central Indiana still looks like it could get impacted pretty bad. Not worried so much about my area (northern Indiana). At the very most we might get 60 MPH winds and a brief spinup tornado.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z hrrr looks like a uptrend.

 

[eep]

Kirkwood Illinois cell looks like it'll be the first supercell of the day. Wondering on what it'll end up doing.

 

[US_Highway15]

Tornado Watch issued for IL and MO. Will get probabilities here in a minute. Non-PDS watch.

 

[hurricaneguy]

I think severe weather will be limited in IL north of I72. Precip just too much for anything to really develop. Between I72 and I70 may be the sweet spot for some discrete storms to develop later.

 

[cincywx]

Tornado Watch issued for IL and MO. Will get probabilities here in a minute. Non-PDS watch.

80/70, just below PDS criteria

 

[US_Highway15]

Tornado Watch issued for IL and MO. Will get probabilities here in a minute. Non-PDS watch.

 

[eep]

Borderline PDS, interesting.

 

[Jbop]

 

[Jbop]