Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[Ozonelayer]

Yeah uh, that's certainly a sounding. GFS also suggesting discrete development which is a major red flag. Good call on the upgrade to a 30%

 

[jiharris0220]

Obviously well north of the warm front, but this is a great example of a pure shear environment, deep within the jet core in all levels of the atmosphere.
If this had even any measurable amount of thermal instability in the PBL (cold air on top of warm air at the same atm pressure) you could get a congestus cloud to put down a tornado, I’m not joking either.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Storm mode will be key to this event. Given a warm front stunting south, and shear parallel vectors, we may have to initiate on other sides of forcing mechanisms. In initial discrete mode, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible. How long we remain discrete is the question or do we congeal?

This event warrants very close watching given the parameters at play.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I can also see a idea where the W MO area initiates more discrete, and IL congeals rapidly before that area. The Euro seems to suggest this type of idea. Would make sense given the fronts at play.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[ThatGuy;P]

I’m surprised it doesn’t stretch out into further into MO

 

[N0mz]

I’m surprised it doesn’t stretch out into further into MO

Stormnet doesn’t differentiate between weak and strong tornadoes so it’s probably picking up mostly on the big QLCS threat further east

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Gonna note that Thursday within more confined to the Mid Atlantic, there is a unusual Dixie threat that will be at play. Very strong low level shear combined with some sort of almost remnant mesoscale feature may lead to a unusual, tropical-eque event for the area. Wouldn't be surprised at a isolated significant tornado threat with MS/AL on this one. And it's June.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z NAM and RRFS-A (I know, I know, but they're the only mesoscale models that go out that far) edged a little bit north with the warm sector for Wednesday evening.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[JayF]

The weather this week looks rough for Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Nebraska. This will be something that needs to be watched and discussed. The weather some of those areas had over the past few days is going to make people nervous. Lets make sure that we give them correct information and no fluff. People are watching who are just interested in what is about to take place.

Discuss:

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

18Z NAM and RRFS-A (I know, I know, but they're the only mesoscale models that go out that far) edged a little bit north with the warm sector for Wednesday evening.

Considering the Nams cold bias that definitely seems substantial, right?

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

There’s also a day five 15% yellow highlighted risk for severe weather for mid Atlantic and New England for Thursday

 

[Tanner]

There’s also a day five 15% yellow highlighted risk for severe weather for mid Atlantic and New England for Thursday

Will I chase on Thursday?

 

[Brice W]

Not to be that guy but there is some overlapping with this thread and the other thread that was created for this event.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Will I chase on Thursday?

I guess so sure

 

[Kds86z]

Why does this thread start tomorrow? Isn’t even a slight risk next 2 days, just marginal. The thread was good before with June 17-18 and can add dates if needed. This thread is unnecessarily long. Last week for June 6-14 thread the added days worked out because we had ENH/MDT/SLGT risks every single day June 6-14 and I am satisfied with how that worked out.

 

[Jbop]

 

[N0mz]

Odd uptrend on stormnet for dixie Thursday.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Why did mods extend this thread to the 21st? This isn't a particularly notable long duration sequence coming up. It's best to leave it at the 17th-18th. I made this thread for these days, don't delete it. I'm changing this title back. Last thread used the 6 day addition right, there is no need to delete this one.

Second edit: I'm getting confused with both comments form the threads merged.

I'm not aware that I used the wrong tag, but if so, apologies. I asked a mod to pin the thread in the SW2026 area and, it would've been seen plenty more.