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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Alright, let's get into it.

A severe weather sequence (potentially potent) is en route to the Central/Southern Plains and Midwest/Dixie Alley.

Thursday will kick it off with the potential for a couple embedded tornadoes and significant damaging winds in S KS/N OK and propagating east.

Friday: a day off type event with all hazards being possible but relatively low chance in the arlatex

Saturday: truthfully no idea why the 30% was pulled but there is a signal for all hazards, wind and hail main threat but tor threat not ruled out in OK.

Sunday: A big day, with a high end environment but plenty of thermodynamic issues.

This will be a hot take but I would've stuck with the 15%. The SPC knows best and pattern recognition is key, but the uncertainty here and confidence is just rife. There's a high end environment but i feel like the 30% was premature. This is a tough system to predict and there may be sig all hazards if cells initiate. This is a classic boom or bust day.

Monday: i calculated the jet translation speed and this was 40 kts from E NM at 06z to Central IL at 00z on Tuesday. This day contains a large, spatial warm sector with a strong LLJ, and in my opinion across the mid south needs to be watched very closely. This is probably the most potent threat out of all of these days. The amount of instability we are getting, the kinematics line up and a fast jet may lead to a significant svr weather event here. Monitoring closely.
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I’m p
The Nino said:
when I see Fred in severe weather threads, I know its about to go down....
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have not seen a Fred post all year. Guess that tells you something lol
 
SPC is explicitly flagging that deterministic models aren't resolving convective initiation along the dryline despite robust synoptic-scale QG forcing. They're leaning on pattern recognition and climatological analogs instead, which tells you everything about where actual forecast confidence sits. The EML is the whole ballgame: if the cap erodes through differential heating at the dryline-boundary intersection or gets mechanically undercut by convergence along the effective outflow boundary, you get rapid storm organization on the deep layer hodograph with supercells tracking into the favorable right-front quadrant of the upper jet. If it doesn't, the entire warm sector sits there cooking and hands Monday an undisturbed thermodynamic reservoir across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...If Sunday busts and the boundary layer reaches Monday intact and unmodified, Monday's MLCAPE could actually rival or approach Sunday's numbers, and the MUCAPE framing would understate the real threat. Conversely, if Sunday fires and chews up the warm sector, Monday's boundary layer gets contaminated with outflow and cloud debris, the ML parcel weakens substantially, and the MU parcel, elevated above the mess, becomes the relevant one. In that scenario, the 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE number is accurate but the storm mode shifts toward elevated cores with a primary wind and hail threat rather than a significant tornado threat.


But as I wrote earlier, I think Monday is the day that deserves more attention than it's getting. The thermodynamic ceiling may be lower — MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg, ~40kt effective shear — but the forcing is far less conditional, initiation is essentially guaranteed along the advancing cold front, and the threat corridor shifts from the rural western Oklahoma dryline into a densely populated swath from Louisiana through Mississippi, Alabama, and into the Tennessee Valley. That population exposure asymmetry changes the risk calculus entirely. SPC explicitly states that if widespread convection fails to materialize Sunday, a higher-end severe potential develops Monday as the Lower Mississippi Valley benefits from preserved lapse rates and an untouched moisture plume. At least one of these two days is very likely to produce a significant event. The genuine uncertainty is which one verifies, and at Day 4-5 range that question isn't answerable yet.
 
Ledian said:
Yeah, i'm mostly in monitoring mode for Monday still, but with what i'm seeing, i'm starting to get a little concerned about what i and others around here might be in store for.
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The thing with saying "i and others around here" for Monday is that the risk area probably covers a good 50 million people. A 1974-level open warm sector extent.
 
Whats gonna be sad is we have one of the possible biggest events for many this year and no way to post any great graphics that have already been posted on X and other sources.What good is it if we cannot post radar images, satellite images or forecast graphics and be able to discuss things?

Just saying...
 
With the caveat that it's at the tail end of its range, the 00Z NAM forecast soundings are already supportive of an all-hazards severe threat over central to north-central Oklahoma at 12Z (7AM CDT) Sunday, despite the capping in place.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
With the caveat that it's at the tail end of its range, the 00Z NAM forecast soundings are already supportive of an all-hazards severe threat over central to north-central Oklahoma at 12Z (7AM CDT) Sunday, despite the capping in place.
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Course that’s the NAM. Week range
 
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