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Severe Weather 4/17/26

So
CheeselandSkies said:
Just conjecture on my part here; pattern has been active (unlike 2018) but all the trough ejections have had issues with structure/orientation (energy coming out piecemeal/positively tilted) that is sub-optimal for long-track, cyclic, classic warm sector supercells.

SPC has caught a bit of flack (understandably so, IMO) for the way the rollout of the CIG hatching system has been implemented (lots of 2%+CIG1 days), but they have done well by holding back from tornado-driven MDTs on days like today and Tuesday when looking at the parameter space alone would have supported it. Perhaps a lesson learned from last year April 28 (although in all cases this week the CAMs were much more supportive of at least *some* supercell activity than they were for that day).

As exemplified by the post above, we've definitely had some significant tornadoes today, but there were also some definite factors that were apparent in the model data that made a really high-end outbreak unlikely.
Click to expand...
question is @CheeselandSkies if this is gonna remain rest of spring.,
 
It's getting late for me (I'm starting to feel exhausted), so I think I'll call it a night and get ready for bed. In the meantime, I home that things calm down soon!
 


I knew it. Blehhhh

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131, 133 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe winds and QLCS tornadoes will remain possible for
the next couple of hours across eastern Illinois and into western
Indiana. However, the early stages of a weakening trend are noted,
suggesting that the severe threat should gradually wane with time.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, several severe wind reports have
been noted with an organized squall line as it moved across central
IL. However, the early stages of a weakening trend are noted with
the line across several metrics, including MRMS VIL, GOES IR
cloud-top temperatures, and lightning counts. This weakening has
been anticipated by recent high-res guidance during the 04-06 UTC
period as the line migrates out of the primary buoyancy axis and
into a drier air mass located downstream across central IN. The
noted convective trends seem to be affirming these short-term
forecasts, so further weakening appears likely as the line continues
east. However, VWP observations downstream at KIND show an uptick in
low-level wind shear with 0-1 km SRH recently increasing to around
550 m2/s2. This highly favorable low-level wind environment will
continue to support the potential for severe winds and embedded QLCS
tornadoes within the line at least for the next couple of hours as
it crosses into western IN. How long this threat will persist
downstream remains somewhat unclear given the ongoing weakening
trend.
 
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