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Severe Weather 4/17/26

RAP is showing nearly 5000 SB CAPE in Eastern Iowa. I'm amazed at how impressive the parameters have been for the last couple systems, yet they all have grown upscale immediately. If anything that is the theme of this year. Every single event over convects, no matter how strong the cap or veered the wind vectors. We're surpassing the parameters of our biggest outbreaks from '24 and '25, yet the real world outcomes are entirely different.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
RAP is showing nearly 5000 SB CAPE in Eastern Iowa. I'm amazed at how impressive the parameters have been for the last couple systems, yet they all have grown upscale immediately. If anything that is the theme of this year. Every single event over convects, no matter how strong the cap or veered the wind vectors. We're surpassing the parameters of our biggest outbreaks from '24 and '25, yet the real world outcomes are entirely different.
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Just one of those years I reckon..
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
RAP is showing nearly 5000 SB CAPE in Eastern Iowa. I'm amazed at how impressive the parameters have been for the last couple systems, yet they all have grown upscale immediately. If anything that is the theme of this year. Every single event over convects, no matter how strong the cap or veered the wind vectors. We're surpassing the parameters of our biggest outbreaks from '24 and '25, yet the real world outcomes are entirely different.
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A lot of the storm mode being linear has just been down to deep layer shear vectors with a combination of trough geometry. All of our troughs have been disjointed and we’ve had to rely on surface features like warm fronts for CI vs classic subtle forcing over a N/S oriented boundary.

If you look at your classic, big time headlining outbreaks throughout history, not all of them had sky high parameters. Or 5500 k/j of cape paired with 600 SRH. They had adequate to great parameters over a large aerial expanse with a very cooperating storm mode. That cooperating storm mode is the hardest part to get, as you noted. That can come down to forcing, balance of dry air, vectors, and a stout cap.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Outbreak #8. Max Velocity is almost as bad as Reed Timmer.
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YT streamers have accurately predicted 21 of the last 3 tornado outbreaks...

Though to be fair mets in my area (OKC) are just as bad.

Tomorrow is super tricky and conditional, though if it does hit its ceiling here in OKC, I am concerned that folks will be sanguine about it since the tornado watches of the last couple days were very underwhelming.
 
ColdFront said:
A lot of the storm mode being linear has just been down to deep layer shear vectors with a combination of trough geometry. All of our troughs have been disjointed and we’ve had to rely on surface features like warm fronts for CI vs classic subtle forcing over a N/S oriented boundary.

If you look at your classic, big time headlining outbreaks throughout history, not all of them had sky high parameters. Or 5500 k/j of cape paired with 600 SRH. They had adequate to great parameters over a large aerial expanse with a very cooperating storm mode. That cooperating storm mode is the hardest part to get, as you noted. That can come down to forcing, balance of dry air, vectors, and a stout cap.
Click to expand...

I always assumed trough geometry and low pressure was connected to extreme parameters. It definitely seems like they're all less connected this year. I'm not sure we've had a sub 990 mb low pressure system ejection yet this year.
 
The best thing about the CIG system is that since it's new everything that happens has the chance to be a historic moment. Today we have the first ever CIG 2 on a Day 2 outlook.
Furthermore, while almost every day so far has had a Cig 1, The SPC has used CIG2 a bit more sparingly- for them to put it on a day 2 makes tomorrow a lot more interesting
 
ThatGuy;P said:
The best thing about the CIG system is that since it's new everything that happens has the chance to be a historic moment. Today we have the first ever CIG 2 on a Day 2 outlook.
Furthermore, while almost every day so far has had a Cig 1, The SPC has used CIG2 a bit more sparingly- for them to put it on a day 2 makes tomorrow a lot more interesting
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High risk Cig 1 is interesting. No moderate for a high risk wind event is also interesting.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I always assumed trough geometry and low pressure was connected to extreme parameters. It definitely seems like they're all less connected this year. I'm not sure we've had a sub 990 mb low pressure system ejection yet this year.
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Not necessarily. Yes, you like to see a negative tilted trough, but you can still get high end parameters from a positively tilted trough.

4/27/11 occurred with a 995+ secondary surface low in the Memphis area.

It helps to have a bombing cyclone, but it’s far, far from a pre-requisite. You can get extreme parameters in multiple ways.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
RAP is showing nearly 5000 SB CAPE in Eastern Iowa. I'm amazed at how impressive the parameters have been for the last couple systems, yet they all have grown upscale immediately. If anything that is the theme of this year. Every single event over convects, no matter how strong the cap or veered the wind vectors. We're surpassing the parameters of our biggest outbreaks from '24 and '25, yet the real world outcomes are entirely different.
Click to expand...
Surprised no one has noted the similarities between this year and some of the early 2020 years. Lots of events look extremely good if being conditional and every damn time the models mess up the cap and the actual day is vaporized by crapvection.
 
slenker said:
Trey sounds pretty impressed based on a community post he just wrote up: Link. Mentioned strong-intense tornadoes and prefrontal development with multiple rounds of supercells, and outlines the CIG2 region in particular.
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Thats pretty bullish but in all honesty, it doesn't appear unrealistic by any means. Both the 06z and 12z showed multiple rounds even with it being progressive.

Once again, I wouldn't be shocked by a D1 MDT and I'd be on board with it if trends continue.
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
YT streamers have accurately predicted 21 of the last 3 tornado outbreaks...

Though to be fair mets in my area (OKC) are just as bad.

Tomorrow is super tricky and conditional, though if it does hit its ceiling here in OKC, I am concerned that folks will be sanguine about it since the tornado watches of the last couple days were very underwhelming.
Click to expand...
I was going to make a similar post earlier. Here in the South Bend IN market, I'm getting very worried about the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome hitting the region here, because of how underwhelming the severe weather has been this year (minus the Knox tornado), yet while being under several ENH/slight risks. Worried that at some point we'll have an outbreak of severe weather/tornadoes around here, and no one will take it seriously because, like I said, how underwhelming it's been around here this year.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I was going to make a similar post earlier. Here in the South Bend IN market, I'm getting very worried about the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome hitting the region here, because of how underwhelming the severe weather has been this year (minus the Knox tornado), yet while being under several ENH/slight risks. Worried that at some point we'll have an outbreak of severe weather/tornadoes around here, and no one will take it seriously because, like I said, how underwhelming it's been around here this year.
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Same here in Columbus, but imagine it spanning over 40+ years (seriously, our last F3+ tornado was in 1973). The big one will come some day, and it'll be an absolute catastrophe when it does.
 
I have a message from @WeathermanLeprechaun . He found me on yt somehow on CC.

Friday seems like a dangerous day with potential 1 or more confluence bands nosing through a volatile environment. hRRr is notorious for being more progressive than most models when comes to progressive fronts. Extreme steep mid level lapse rates make for serious concern especially if confluence bands develop and mature. Doesn’t rule out intense tornadoes, agrees with SPC.
 
Kds86z said:
I have a message from @WeathermanLeprechaun . He found me on yt somehow on CC.

Friday seems like a dangerous day with potential 1 or more confluence bands nosing through a volatile environment. hRRr is notorious for being more progressive than most models when comes to progressive fronts. Extreme steep mid level lapse rates make for serious concern especially if confluence bands develop and mature. Doesn’t rule out intense tornadoes, agrees with SPC.
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Yeah what happened to him? Hasn't been on since Monday night.
 
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