Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

[TornadoFan]

Fairly boring so far. I am not sure the plains even need to be under a tornado watch at this point. I guess we will see, but TX/OK/KS looks to continue to be super boring in the near term.

It hasn't even started yet.

 

[Kds86z]

Yeah, its only 430 pm lol..

It hasn't even started yet.

 

[Kds86z]

Dust swirl weak tornado Otg Iowa.

 

[Tennie]

Just a reminder that even if today's storms amount to a nothing-burger, it is still the 114th anniversary of the Titanic disaster. Part-Time Explorer over on YT will be hosting a real-time live stream with a recreation of the sinking as it unfolded in 1912 (not affiliated with them, just tuned in last year for the experience). Starts at 9 PM Eastern.

And if today does end up being a major outbreak... then well... let's just say April 14 will have another disaster under its belt...

(Not to mention the outbreak of April 14-15, 2012 that featured the Langley EF4 and fatal Woodward EF3)

Not to mention the night of the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, as well as the beginning of the "Forgotten Outbreak" of April 14-16, 2011 (I made a post about the latter over on the "Tornado and Hurricane Anniversaries" thread).

 

[TornadoFan]

Nice view of the Waterloo storm on Ryan Scholl's stream.

 

[Tennie]

Ryan Scholl got a good view of circulation in the cloud base from almost directly underneath it.

 

[Muwx]

It hasn't even started yet.

We'll see. I am far from the only one who is questioning the plains risk.

 

[Tennie]

There's a supercell west of Madison, Wisconsin, that appears to have an impressively large hail core on it.

 

[klouzek7079]

Fairly boring so far. I am not sure the plains even need to be under a tornado watch at this point. I guess we will see, but TX/OK/KS looks to continue to be super boring in the near term.

Are you going to share why you think this or are you just going to keep repeating yourself?

 

[notsoencrypted]

There's a supercell west of Madison, Wisconsin, that appears to have an impressively large hail core on it.

It's also doing some very excellent rumbles. I'm near to it, but not under it, so I'm getting to enjoy the thunder.

 

[Muwx]

Are you going to share why you think this or are you just going to keep repeating yourself?

Lots of reasons. Cloud cover, flow parallel to the initiating boundary, sheer favoring splitting of cells.... the list goes on and on.

 

[Tennie]

Lots of reasons. Cloud cover, flow parallel to the initiating boundary, sheer favoring splitting of cells.... the list goes on and on.

Would it be accurate to say that the list of factors that are favorable to severe weather in that area is less than the list of factors that are unfavorable?

 

[Muwx]

Would it be accurate to say that the list of factors that are favorable to severe weather in that area is less than the list of factors that are unfavorable?

Possibly. I don't think the severe threat is low, but i think the tornado threat is very low.

 

[ColdFront]

You’re really seeing the absence of adequate low level shear in the northern mode right now. Plenty of CI, and discrete supercells at that, but major hailers and just brief spin ups.

 

[Ozonelayer]

You’re really seeing the absence of adequate low level shear in the northern mode right now. Plenty of CI, and discrete supercells at that, but major hailers and just brief spin ups.

Should that increase as we head later into the evening?

 

[Tennie]

Ryan Hall has started to use terms such as "overpass ogres" to refer to people who attempt to use overpasses as severe weather shelters. I think we ought to adopt those terms.

 

[buckeye05]

Reminder that there is nothing wrong with pointing out near term trends and potential limiting factors, and especially if there is elaboration and evidence as to why.

 

[ColdFront]

Should that increase as we head later into the evening?

It should, yes. However, storms will need to maintain some sort of discrete or semi-discrete storm mode until then if you want to maximize that significant tornado threat.

I’m not saying the tornado threat is over at all, just that we are still in that period where we are waiting on that extra ingredient.

 

[TH2002]

TOR-warned storm heading into Independence and Winthrop, IA.

 

[Kds86z]