Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

[buckeye05]

Still weak. This could become a problem for the Waterloo metro area if it gets its act together though.

 

[Weatherguyx]

Some of the comments are asking Mike what he meant by " Gorilla Hail"

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[buckeye05]

Reminder that not all nudgers or storm mergers are automatically productive. This one appears to have disrupted things momentarily. If it sorts itself out and establish more inflow we could see more tornado potential.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Had a shift to the right aswell, so once it clears its inflow it'll have increased chances. Headed right for Waterloo aswell.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

4500 surface cape

 

[buckeye05]

Tornado warning dropped. This is why its premature to immediately up hype any kind of merger.

 

[TornadoFan]

It's trying to form a new hook and inflow notch at the moment. But for now we wait.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Iowa has the look of an area that's going to be covered in a messy blob of convection soon.

 

[TornadoFan]

ROtation increasing near Elgin, Iowa.

 

[speedbump305]

That storm near Elgin, IA could get interesting shortly.

 

[eep]

Iowa has the look of an area that's going to be covered in a messy blob of convection soon.

There are definitely a few supercells that are probably positioned well but storms north of that outflow boundary are probably just a hail nuke.

 

[TH2002]

Just a reminder that even if today's storms amount to a nothing-burger, it is still the 114th anniversary of the Titanic disaster. Part-Time Explorer over on YT will be hosting a real-time live stream with a recreation of the sinking as it unfolded in 1912 (not affiliated with them, just tuned in last year for the experience). Starts at 9 PM Eastern.

And if today does end up being a major outbreak... then well... let's just say April 14 will have another disaster under its belt...

(Not to mention the outbreak of April 14-15, 2012 that featured the Langley EF4 and fatal Woodward EF3)

 

[Muwx]

Fairly boring so far. I am not sure the plains even need to be under a tornado watch at this point. I guess we will see, but TX/OK/KS looks to continue to be super boring in the near term.

 

[eep]

I will also note that similarly to yesterday, the way the storms are formatted is pretty optimal for staying discrete, even with some over convection. However there will definitely have to be mergers in order for most of them to not overcompete.

 

[Beachwalker]

Waterloo trying to be a splitter. Could be the one long-term. 4500 CAPE? Been a while since we’ve seen numbers like that?

 

[Kds86z]

…………..

Fairly boring so far. I am not sure the plains even need to be under a tornado watch at this point. I guess we will see, but TX/OK/KS looks to continue to be super boring in the near term