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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

Muwx said:
Absolutely wild. The KC area wasn’t even under a general thunderstorm risk this morning. Stunning miss by the SPC.
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Gonna stop you right there. No models forecasted this whatsoever.

One did, and it was the RRFS. Yeah, you can see why people threw that scenario in the bin. Models only caught on to the potential of supercells around 18z before convection initiated. Given how things uptrended so quickly for a localised significant event, I think they did particularly well with the tornado watch and juggling it considering that this was not on ANYONE's radar this morning.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Gonna stop you right there. No models forecasted this whatsoever.

One did, and it was the RRFS. Yeah, you can see why people threw that scenario in the bin. Models only caught on to the potential of supercells around 18z before convection initiated. Given how things uptrended so quickly for a localised significant event, I think they did particularly well with the tornado watch and juggling it considering that this was not on ANYONE's radar this morning.
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I don’t really think models missing this excuses the experts but I’m also not really blaming them. However, I do think they were very late to recognize the risk as the day progressed. By mid afternoon, this risk area was becoming apparent and they really didn’t adjust.
 
I'd go 10CIG2 tomorrow. In my opinion, that 00z HRRR had enough uncertainties of discrete mode but very volatile kinematic environment go the point where a intense tornado or two would be possible even with the more semi discrete clusters of sorts. After that, it's a MCS in Michigan with significant damaging winds and several embedded tornadoes.

Wednesday came out on the HRRR and..it isn't particularly big but there could be a isolated widespread svr risk in the Plains and Midwest/NE. I think a sneaky Midwest play could occur along with OK/KS where I do expect the potential for tornadic supercells. Otherwise, anything else looks pretty poor.

I'll have more on Friday since there's no new model data for then atm
 
Muwx said:
I don’t really think models missing this excuses the experts but I’m also not really blaming them. However, I do think they were very late to recognize the risk as the day progressed. By mid afternoon, this risk area was becoming apparent and they really didn’t adjust.
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That definitely is a fair argument that they could've acted quicker and got the risk upgrade out just in time to save face.

I'm not trying to excuse the experts either, this was seemingly out of nowhere but I do agree with you when it comes from a surface observation standpoint they could've acted quicker. At least, we still seen them throw out a tornado watch because they probably had no clue what was about to happen given they didn't expect anything tornadic
 
What in the hell did I miss!?! I come back from dealing with a major anxiety attack and hell breaks loose in Kansas. The plains are always full of surprises, even to this day. Prayers for the towns affected.
 
Also apologies for my lack of inactivity lately. Been a really hard time for me lately dealing with depression which i’m not ashamed to admit, but thankfully have developed some motivation to track some storms again with you guys. It’s a safe haven for me and I appreciate everyone of you.

Anyway back on topic. HRRR paints a pretty dangerous situation for the plains tomorrow, and today has been insane in Kansas. Two strong/intense tornadoes have occurred and I’m afraid to see some of the damage photos that may come out and what tomorrow may have in store.
 
speedbump305 said:
Also apologies for my lack of inactivity lately. Been a really hard time for me lately dealing with depression which i’m not ashamed to admit, but thankfully have developed some motivation to track some storms again with you guys. It’s a safe haven for me and I appreciate everyone of you.

Anyway back on topic. HRRR paints a pretty dangerous situation for the plains tomorrow, and today has been insane in Kansas. Two strong/intense tornadoes have occurred and I’m afraid to see some of the damage photos that may come out and what tomorrow may have in store.
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Sorry to hear, and glad to hear this place helps.
 
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