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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

ColdFront said:
I’m not opining on Tuesday yet since I actually haven’t done a deep look into the models.

With that said, something I’ve learned over the years is at this range it’s best to look at the ensembles first then the deterministic to see if a majority of its own members disagree with the run in question. Ive definitely been someone who called for outbreak or bu$t based on each deterministic model run leading up to an event lol but now really ride with the ensembles until we are close.

The other thing, and it’s been mentioned ad nauseam, is that models flip flop. A lot. They can also be completely out to pasture until mere hours before the event. They’re really good, but not perfect. Prime example was 3/14 and 3/15 last year. For days, 3/15 was the headliner day, and you even had a 5/20/2019-lite supercell printing HRRR run the night before. On the other hand, 3/14 looked like a moisture starved QLCS event. Look how both of those days turned out.

Your big events sometimes rapidly uptrend the day of. The trough on 3/31/23 came in more zonal the morning of. I would say 3/14 uptrended last year. That whole week of the 3/31 event, it was supposed to be the appetizer for 4/4, which was looking to be a very high end event. Look how that turned out.

Also, don’t underestimate on shore sampling of the system. Once the system actually gets on shore and is sampled, the models get a better handle usually.
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The bolded can’t be said enough.
 
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Am I misinterpreting or has the Euro kept the trough from ejecting until Wednesday for like 4 straight runs now?

Edit: looks like the SPC has highlighted that discrepancy in the day 4-8 outlook. Not in a position to copy/paste it at the moment.
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
Am I misinterpreting or has the Euro kept the trough from ejecting until Wednesday for like 4 straight runs now?

Edit: looks like the SPC has highlighted that discrepancy in the day 4-8 outlook. Not in a position to copy/paste it at the moment.
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Yes I posted a screenshot from the 18z run last night last page, here is the 6z where is still has the trough way back over the west on tuesday evening. If anything its even slower than last night.

1775830676662.png
 
I love these threads, it's around peak intensity season and things can get spicy. I can't get away from reading everyone's input and the community perspective can be as dynamic as the weather. :laugh_cry: -- an emoji we desperately need @WesL
 
Tuesday maybe shifting a bit north towards the Midwest. GFS does suggest isolated development on the vertical velocity tool, and that environment isn't bad to support isolated all hazards. The GEFS would agree with this sentiment too, so therefore I would take this run more in hindsight because there's agreements on the ensembles within it.
 
I haven't really heard much about Storm Net until this event. How does it usually perform?

Also I signed up for Pivotal Weather last night (holy crap is it clunky compared to College of Dupage), and it looked like the EPS and AI EPS still had the trough ejecting on Tuesday. I wonder if they've trended towards the deterministic Euro yet this morning.

The Euro did this exact same thing with being the first to show a delayed trough ejection with a system this last winter. Forgot which event it was, but it ended up being correct, and it took the GFS over 24 hours to catch up I'm pretty sure. Will be interesting to see if this system plays out in a similar fashion.
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
I haven't really heard much about storm net until this event. How does it usually perform?

Also I signed up for Pivotal Weatger last night (holy crap is it clunky compared to College of Dupage), and it looked like the EPS and AI EPS still had the trough ejecting on Tuesday. I wonder if they've trended towards the deterministic Euro yet this morning.

The Euro did this exact same thing with being the first to show a delayed trough ejection with a system this last winter. Forgot which event it was, but it ended up being correct, and it took the GFS over 24 hours to catch up I'm pretty sure. Will be interesting to see if this system plays in a similar fashion.
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If its delayed would that be beneficial to the threat or no?
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I haven't really heard much about Storm Net until this event. How does it usually perform?

Also I signed up for Pivotal Weather last night (holy crap is it clunky compared to College of Dupage), and it looked like the EPS and AI EPS still had the trough ejecting on Tuesday. I wonder if they've trended towards the deterministic Euro yet this morning.

The Euro did this exact same thing with being the first to show a delayed trough ejection with a system this last winter. Forgot which event it was, but it ended up being correct, and it took the GFS over 24 hours to catch up I'm pretty sure. Will be interesting to see if this system plays out in a similar fashion.
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Storm net does pretty good in my limited interaction with it. Basically a better, more accurate, real-time version of nadocast.

 
bckhd2 said:
This is why you don't call things "generational" 6 days out from an event
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The super outbreak comment was legitimately stupid. Even if that solution verified verbatim, chances are it wouldn’t come close to a super outbreak. That was just unnecessary hyperbole. We have a sample size of 2 (3 if you count Palm Sunday) for Super Outbreaks. Both events are somewhat similar synoptically, but also very different. There could be multiple configurations that yield a super outbreak, but I don’t think there’s a unique synoptic signature that’s apparent.

I can imagine the 1974 version of WxTwitter on April 2nd saying the next day would be a bu$t because the trough goes into a positive tilt and the surface low weakens and fills instead of deepens as the event progresses.
 
Ozonelayer said:
If its delayed would that be beneficial to the threat or no?
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The problem isn't really the delay, it's moreso the fact the ejection is looking sloppy and disorganized. If it was just slower while maintaining structure and strength, it could be worse because it would allow more instability to accumulate in the warm sector beforehand. But I also think the movement speed is a big part of it's strength? So seems to be pretty bearish overall.
 
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