Schoeppeya
Member
The currently running GFS is pretty impressive for every day saturday through wednesday of next week.
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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
Ozonelayer
Member
The GEFS Ensembles have actually been consistent on Monday since the 18z run yesterday. Wouldn't be too shocked if they upgrade Monday to a 30% if it holds up until the next D4-8 Outlook:
Kds86z
Member
Broyles doing the extendeds. Yeah lots of T word.
tennessee storm chaser
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We will see
Weatherguyx
Member
Wow! A severe weather/tornado threat into next week. Shocking. Who would have even thought it? LOL!
Do you think the low effective layer shear could be a possible hindrance?
Edit:
Thanks for the response about CAPE!
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Look at the high pressure ridge that is set to move into place in the Gulf just as the trough hits. This has really grabbed my attention. Could this turn into some really explosive forcing for our storms? Looks like if this is an outbreak it could extend well past the 13th as well.
TornadoFan
Member
Well don't like it when Gabe uses such strong wording like this.
US_Highway15
Member
Weatherguyx
Member
Looks like Reed isn't the only one using the term "Super Outbreak"Let the hype train begin
slenker
Member
I know it’s the ICON, but this is absolutely filthy.
Wow. Thats all I can say. Folks that is about as classic as it gets when it comes to synoptic scaling.
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While it is one run. That is a higher-end run. Hopefully that won’t be the case but this gives you a bit of understanding the system that we’re gonna be talking about. Which is going to be significant in some perspective.
Tuesday looks like it could be one of those days in the Plains if the current idea with the trough ejection holds, that's what I'll say for now.
Reminds me a lot of how last years May 17th system looked. Has pretty much the same “punching” mechanism as this one does.
00z GFS isn't too far off honestly.
And this sounding from Northern Iowa is hilarious. 3700 CAPE and 8.2 mid level lapse.
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Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
I went from, "this seems p good" to "ok now I am getting that feeling that this needs to be monitored" def waiting for new info to drop as we get closer, I always have liked the leading up to the event bit due to how interesting it is seeing new data come through
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
if this holds and other models too get a hold of this and keep it a d5 30 could be on the table, now if I'm wrong feel free to tell me