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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

Ozonelayer said:
At minimum high end EF-3 to low end EF-4 IMO, Nick is at High End EF-3 minimum as well.
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I normally refrain from making EF comments like this, but based on the rowing, denuding ( maybe slight debarking ) and what appears to be some granulation, I wouldn’t rule out that the tornado was at the lower/middle range of EF4 intensity here.
 
speedbump305 said:
I normally refrain from making EF comments like this, but based on the rowing, denuding ( maybe slight debarking ) and what appears to be some granulation, I wouldn’t rule out that the tornado was at the lower/middle range of EF4 intensity here.
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There's very little doubt in my mind that at least one of the tornadoes from yesterday had EF4 potential. It just depends on the damage.
 
The home that appears almost completely swept in this image could be our first obvious EF4 indicator if it was built well. Likely wiped by a sub vortex.

Edit, that’s a big fat nevermind….it was a very poorly constructed CMU home by the looks of it closer up.
 

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KevinH said:
Denuding?
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Basically when all that's left of a tree is the (usually debarked) main trunk, hence the "nude" wording:
1773251149280.png
This example is from the Gary, SD EF3 and is not from this event. Just using it as an example.
 
ORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...45...

VALID 111750Z - 111915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42, 45 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS
AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME
STRENGTHENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EASTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FILTERED DIURNAL
HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S F) IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KTS. AS INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE, WITH A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT, STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW (60+ KTS
AT 1 KM AGL PER THE PBZ VWP) WILL YIELD ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE MAY ALSO POSE A RISK
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.

..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 03/11/2026
 
82 degrees from my Tempest WX Station
 
Currently 78/56 at DCA. Pretty big T/d spread to overcome there. Not sure if IAD will put up a balloon at 18z or not but mesoanalysis shows some pretty stout capping still in place east of the mountains.

I guess we’ll see if they issue a watch here in a bit. We’re still in a 5#.
 
warneagle said:
Currently 78/56 at DCA. Pretty big T/d spread to overcome there. Not sure if IAD will put up a balloon at 18z or not but mesoanalysis shows some pretty stout capping still in place east of the mountains.

I guess we’ll see if they issue a watch here in a bit. We’re still in a 5#.
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I hope they put one up. Here in gettysburg, it is very juicy for March! 73/59.
 
Aaron Rider said:
I hope they put one up. Here in gettysburg, it is very juicy for March! 73/59.
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I guess y’all are just outside of the current one in PA/WV/MD. It’s nice and warm here in DC and the sun is trying to peek out but the dews are still in the mid-50s down here. Seems like they’re hovering closer to 60 in the current watch area.
 
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