Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

[Central Ohio Wx]

Yea sir, not going to speak too soon, but may be a huge bullet dodged.

You can actually see the way the risk bends south of Chicago on the state-based map:

Very lucky indeed. The SPC still hasn't fixed the SLGT glitch for the D1 outlook so I can't post that.

 

[speedbump305]

I normally refrain from making posts like this, but i’ve got an uneasy feeling about today.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Does anyone have a link to the SPC site where they break the outlooks down by state? Trying to check in on some areas

Search for a map of NWS WFOs, then google the ones you're interested in. On their homepage there will be a link to "Forecast Discussions".

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Right. We are looking at a very dangerous and impactful day today across areas in N IL and potentially south of the WF. A dangerous environment for significant tornadoes exists in Texas and N IL. Heed any warning today. The way obs are looking, i think moderate is a good choice and well deserved. Hope for the best

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Getting Some November 17 2013 vibes. Although I don't think it'll be that bad

 

[VultureDirge89]

And we've gone moderate. Mention of "multiple strong to intense tornadoes".

 

[Kds86z]

Getting Some November 17 2013 vibes. Although I don't think it'll be that bad

Similar warm front as Rochelle EF4 trey said. I’ve also seen similarities mentioned to Palm Sunday? Hmm

 

[US_Highway15]

Getting Some November 17 2013 vibes. Although I don't think it'll be that bad

You mean 2013?

 

[cniemczura]

I know sometimes these things tend to shift more eastward (or maybe north/south) the closer we get to the event. Any type of movement expected? I'm assuming north is out of the question due to the temperature, although it was moving that way yesterday, from original risk maps.

 

[SmokeEater]

I normally refrain from making posts like this, but i’ve got an uneasy feeling about today.

The amount of talking heads that usually don't hype and are saying intense tornadoes are increasingly possible is a little worrisome.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

You mean 2013?

Yeah I corrected. It was a typo lol

 

[Kds86z]

Last tornado moderate was May 16 tornado outbreak, London EF4 etc.

 

[bckhd2]

Just want to say again before it gets real busy this afternoon how much I enjoy the quality of discussion here, really feel like I learn a ton every time we have an event like this and I appreciate everyone sharing their knowledge. I hope everyone in the risk area stays safe today!

 

[jackhutwx]

I see that oswego is in the 5% CIG1, not really sure if we're gonna get anything here just because of the warm frontal boundary being a bit south. id expect there to be some amount of hail here??

 

[notsoencrypted]

Anybody storm chasing today? CheeselandSkies you chasing? If so where at?

Since you asked, and he's likely at work (if I'm interpreting timing correctly), here's what he had said most recently about chasing today:

Still kind of waffling between setting up at Galesburg in the most potent parameter space, or straight south to I-80 at La Salle to make sure to not be too far behind if it fires further east and tracks toward the southern Chicago metro as the 0Z sim ref suggests. Don't want to have to core punch something from the north if it's already initiating as I'm en route.

12Z HRRR is...something. Two discrete rounds, and just about an ideal chasing scenario for me. Early one is far enough north and holds off just long enough that I could possibly get to it after work, and the late round fires before 23Z and remains discrete for much longer than earlier runs.

Based on the most recent map, Galesburg is right on the west edge of the upgraded area, and I-80 is looking to be a good target as well, so I would guess if he's going, it's probably still somewhere in that area.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

15z hrrr has 3 long track supercells with tornado risk moving from East Illinois through West Indiana.

 

[Kds86z]

Just want to say again before it gets real busy this afternoon how much I enjoy the quality of discussion here, really feel like I learn a ton every time we have an event like this and I appreciate everyone sharing their knowledge. I hope everyone in the risk area stays safe today!

Welcome and glad you’re enjoying.

 

[Ozonelayer]

15z hrrr has 3 long track supercells with tornado risk moving from East Illinois through West Indiana.

Yeah. I'm not posting it as we are so close to the event but the 15z is nasty. 2nd round is also semi discrete for a bit which would undoubtedly be a problem.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah. I'm not posting it as we are so close to the event but the 15z is nasty. 2nd round is also semi discrete for a bit which would undoubtedly be a problem.

Im wondering if we will see the first pds of the year?

 

[Ozonelayer]

Im wondering if we will see the first pds of the year?

I'd bet good money we see them issue a PDS TOR watch. The risk most certainly warrants it.